"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Chance of Isolated Stronger Storms , Cloud Coverage Again Late

Friday : Late Afternoon on the Beach Line, East Merritt Island 

RECAP: Yesterday materialized in not so much a surprising fashion though several strong wind reports that were sub-severe came in mainly as a result of  storm cluster outflow from South Central that worked north into Brevard County. Otherwise,  storm motion outside of that outflow which created it's own storm environment was close to none and coverage by end of day as was noted in 'purple' in the blog post is similar to what radar from early evening reflected  as the activity began to dwindle. (images end of post)

Pileus Iridescent Atop a Building Storm in Far West Cocoa 

TODAY: Steering today per KSC sounding and forecast models all point to slightly better storm motion today from yesterday, being from the WSW in general around 10-13 mph. The upper level temperatures were down to near -7.5C at 500mb and about 8C at 700mb, which is a drop of about 2C from this time yesterday. There is an absence of the low level inversion and not as many (or any) fog reports this morning as was the case yesterday although inevitably the atmosphere at time is still recovering from yesterday's rains and cloud coverage through at least mid-late morning. Otherwise:

"Lightning Zapped Through This Display as Light from the Setting Sun Pokes Through"

Chance of some stronger storms once again with plenty of rainshowers and thunderstorms almost statewide occurring at varying locations at varying times of the day. The strongest storms if to occur will be after 4:30pm with boundary collisions from earlier showers and Lake Breezes coincide with incoming sea breeze fronts from both coasts. The area most possible to have a stronger storm is shown in purple below, but as early afternoon begins, this could easily be narrowed down. Suspect though, it's going to be close to the same area as yesterday for the late day activities, only a bit further north into
Volusia County as well..

Yesterday the final collision was over Eastern Osceola County which emerged from outflow of storms that had formed earlier along the sea/Lake Okeechobee breeze collision further south. No two days are exactly the same , but it is interesting to see which dominoes will fall first and what chain reaction will ensure from that point on.

In the end though, some stronger storms with hefty wind gusts possible, again dangerous lightning as always, and cloudy conditions over a large portion of the state by the time sunset has beset with light to moderate lingering rains over whatever area ends up as the storm graveyard of the day.

TOMORROW AND BEYOND: Models consistent through at least next weekend with west to east steering to continue favoring the east side for the late day 'stuff'. Some drier air to be entrained around the ridge located east of Florida though, so Sunday through Tuesday will see some dry slots, and perhaps even no sea breeze from Central Brevard and north on one of those days. Best chances of late day storms so far tomorrow looks to be from North Brevard and North along the east side of the state.  Low pressure still being shown to form along the mid-Atlantic which will increase the mid-level winds from the WSW slightly, and at lower levels perhaps preventing the sea breeze altogether at least one day as noted. But that trough will be slow to move out: At least through the end of the week we'll be dealing mainly with two things.

1. Where the dry vs. moist air will be ; and
2. Where the east coast sea breeze will and will not form. That is critical for moisture convergence and uplift boundaries for late day storms.

BELOW: Yesterday's post and late day radar depiction comparison of the last of activity:


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