"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Hairline Fractional Chance of a Severe Storm Through Mid-Evening East Coast

Very very small chance of a Strong to Severe storm near the East coast after 5:30pm through 9pm. Better chances along the panhandle. One warning has already been issued toward Ft Pierce/Vero Beach areas earlier this afternoon
TODAY: Tough call today, but wanted to throw something out there. Very warm inland with highs running in the lower 90Fs this 3:30pm hour. East coast sea breeze has worked west of I95 but would not expect it to make in as far west as downtown Orlando but could be close. As can be seen above by lack of clouds, Central is moisture starved except east of I95. In fact, moisture plots of surface relative humidity almost (stressed) looks like a Texas Dryline, just to stretch it a bit, with moisture to the east, and very dry to the west where the warmest temperatures are occurring. Otherwise, surface data is showing the best mixing ratios and greatest SURFACE INSTABILITY to be advecting onto Far East Central, but in the middle levels where the dry air exists there is little to zero instability.

The question becomes, "Can enough moisture and instability build up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere while upper level divergence and some energy approaches from the west by early evening?". Additionally, one severe warned storm has already formed toward Vero Beach, with an outflow boundary initiating another showers further north toward Sebastian Inlet, but that storm formed as a result of entirely different mechanisms as to what could occur later today. Should those showers  over eastern South Central send out additional north bound out flow boundaries (or even one further north)...that could linger un-noticed until around 7pm well after peak heating. Expect the east coast toward Cape Canaveral could end up with a hefty sea-breeze after 5pm up river, perhaps along both river ways as well toward Southern Volusia.   Storms (a storm or two) could (stressed) go up. But only one or two if any is anticipated and if so, could easily become severe.   Will also need to watch for a south bound propagating storm from near Ormond Beach toward the North Brevard County Border toward Sanford after 6pm. Overall though, the chances of any of these scenarios panning out looks quite small. Things change quickly  though after 6pm, so never say never.

Otherwise, over South Florida a mesoscale convective discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for possible stronger storms. If so, Looks like mainly Dade County due to that much of the area is being worked over already by early afternoon activity.  Could be a linger shower or two toward SW Florida well after dark, or almost anywhere really, but too isolated to try to pin down exactly where.

WEDNESDAY: Moisture from South Florida works further north, with a chance of showers and Storms from near Melbourne and South, with a secondary area perhaps further north toward St. Augustine. Each successive day gets a bit more difficult to pin down due to developments in the tropics near eastern Cuba in model guidance.

The GFS and previous ECMWF forecast a vorticity max to swing by South Florida toward the end of the week, that  does an about face north of the Bahamas only to cross Central coming toward Sunday. This is way out to far in the future to put any level of confidence on, although the EcmwF has shown 'some version' of that scenario for two runs now, and the GFS just joined in with that this morning. The GFS is showing what looks like a subtropical low centered right over Brevard by Monday.

OTHERWISE: The NAM model has been the odd one out , showing severe weather potential going into Thursday as far north as I-4, but none of the models nor official forecast outlets are buying into it.

No comments: