|Very very small chance of a Strong to Severe storm near the East coast after 5:30pm through 9pm. Better chances along the panhandle. One warning has already been issued toward Ft Pierce/Vero Beach areas earlier this afternoon|
The question becomes, "Can enough moisture and instability build up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere while upper level divergence and some energy approaches from the west by early evening?". Additionally, one severe warned storm has already formed toward Vero Beach, with an outflow boundary initiating another showers further north toward Sebastian Inlet, but that storm formed as a result of entirely different mechanisms as to what could occur later today. Should those showers over eastern South Central send out additional north bound out flow boundaries (or even one further north)...that could linger un-noticed until around 7pm well after peak heating. Expect the east coast toward Cape Canaveral could end up with a hefty sea-breeze after 5pm up river, perhaps along both river ways as well toward Southern Volusia. Storms (a storm or two) could (stressed) go up. But only one or two if any is anticipated and if so, could easily become severe. Will also need to watch for a south bound propagating storm from near Ormond Beach toward the North Brevard County Border toward Sanford after 6pm. Overall though, the chances of any of these scenarios panning out looks quite small. Things change quickly though after 6pm, so never say never.
Otherwise, over South Florida a mesoscale convective discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for possible stronger storms. If so, Looks like mainly Dade County due to that much of the area is being worked over already by early afternoon activity. Could be a linger shower or two toward SW Florida well after dark, or almost anywhere really, but too isolated to try to pin down exactly where.
WEDNESDAY: Moisture from South Florida works further north, with a chance of showers and Storms from near Melbourne and South, with a secondary area perhaps further north toward St. Augustine. Each successive day gets a bit more difficult to pin down due to developments in the tropics near eastern Cuba in model guidance.
The GFS and previous ECMWF forecast a vorticity max to swing by South Florida toward the end of the week, that does an about face north of the Bahamas only to cross Central coming toward Sunday. This is way out to far in the future to put any level of confidence on, although the EcmwF has shown 'some version' of that scenario for two runs now, and the GFS just joined in with that this morning. The GFS is showing what looks like a subtropical low centered right over Brevard by Monday.
OTHERWISE: The NAM model has been the odd one out , showing severe weather potential going into Thursday as far north as I-4, but none of the models nor official forecast outlets are buying into it.