|General Depiction to Show Some Strong Storms (Red) Are Possible, |
but not necessarily as located (above)
Just looking at the sky as of noon shows a 'crispness' to some of the clouds which could be an indicator of later day activity of more volatile nature. The morning KSC (Kennedy Space Center) weather launch balloon would support west southwest to east northeast (ENE) steering at around 9 -13mph but any storm that by chance happens to grow in strength and density out of character could move a bit faster toward the ENE and the East Coast especially near I-4 toward the Mims area. Some dry slots would support (as shown in Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)) more isolated activity but with winds, if so, gusting toward 50-55mph with frequent cloud to ground lightning possibly well outside the rain areas. Thus, special heed to late day activity prior to arrival or after passage of rainfall for a lightning threat hazard.
MONDAY: As noted yesterday and as is manifesting now, Monday might be another 'see what happens after today day' as the GFS has shifted a bit and no longer favors the far east side of the state for rainfall hardly at all except possibly with the advent of the east coast sea breeze earlier in the day in isolated locations with steering more into the interior areas.
BEYOND: Guidance heading into mid-range varies and the outcome is contingent with some energy related to Dorian the Deceased. The Euro brings the energy right across Florida whereas the GFS says no dice to that. The GFS appears now would be the more favored option which would mean we'll enter a drier spell east side but wetter period West Central and West coast through much of next week until the next continental trough approaches the eastern U.S. which would then drop the ridge axis south of Central, reversing the storm steering direction. Thus, until we can know for certain what the Rustic Remains of Dorian will do, the future remains more uncertain than usual given the circumstances.