"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, January 25, 2016

Frosty Start to Week: "Chance of a Risk" of Strong - Severe Storms Wednesday

TODAY: Last of the cold shot being felt this morning as wind has relaxed significantly and temperatures fall in typical fashion down the spine of the state and toward each coast. Frost might even be experienced as far south as Okeechobee this morning, even toward Punta Gorda in various low lying pockets and in the more rural areas though more urbanized areas for example parts of Orlando will remain unfrosted.

After the defrosting, temperature will warm today to the mid-upper 60Fs with light wind .  Compared to the past two days this will be a much welcome change especially after the locals have been toughed up a bit over the past few days. Nothing can touch us now! (Especially as that might have been the coldest period we will have all winter, or so it seems). Climatology says, "We are leaving the coldest time of year by week's end".

Chance that over night  high jet stream cirrus might begin to spread in from the WSW after midnight whilst we are sleeping and thicken a bit toward day break into the afternoon. ...  Tuesday will start out much different than Monday will end cloud cover wise.

TUESDAY:  A bit of a 'warm front' ( though very loosely speaking ) will lift from The South to Central early morning through mid-afternoon. It may be more of an extension of a coastal trough, but regardless some guidance anticipates some isolated shower activity with this boundary from South Central to Central Florida between early morning toward the 1pm time frame from south to north. 

Yet warmer with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. Highs might be held into the 60Fs though with the anticipated high clouds to move in. 

Any shower activity will be low topped as most moisture will be in the upper levels and the low levels leaving a dry and broad mid-level layer.

WEDNESDAY: Model discrepancy between the two big players, The ECMWF and GFS. has been on-going for the past 48 and continues even up through the evening runs.  As a result the extended outlook toward Wednesday/Thursday remains a bit of a mystery though rain looks certain for many areas.

 It comes down to a matter of exactly when and if so, how strong and placement of some of the surface features. Given what I'm seeing in the morning NAM combined with the GFS would not be surprised to see a strong to borderline severe storm or two across South Central to Central Florida from early Wednesday toward early afternoon time spreading from west to east as noted below. But if the ECMWF model starts to be the main player, that chance will be ramped up. There has been no consistency this season on which either model has played out as the dominant successor, but the GFS has all in all been doing a fine job, apparently up until this upcoming system (or so it seems).

Either way, would hold to the thought that there is a 'Chance that there will be a Risk of Severe Weather' ...that is to say, a chance of a chance...until models can come into better agreement.

THURSDAY:  GFS consistent at least as per previous post of some post-frontal cloud cover and/or rain fall in the cool air (50Fs) for a short time. Whether that will hold true is yet to be known but suspect it will in some fashion or another. And if so, for how long? 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY; Regardless, will go with whatever is to happen having cleared the entire state (except maybe far South Florida) by Friday. Cooler mornings and afternoons once again with temperatures running a bit below normal but nothing like this last visitation though one or both mornings might be a bit breezy and cold again...lows in the lower- mid 40Fs for Central and bit warmer South seems to be what is implied for now.

IN THE FAR BEYOND: No very cold shots are foreseen into the first week of February, if we can snake through to mid-February any real cold spells would likely be very short lived. On the other hand, though the "El Nino' pattern of late seems to be taking a Sabbatical in some regards, this might be but a lull in the action to draw folks into a false sense of security. Moving into February/March  might once again see more conditions for severe weather events aside from this upcoming Wednesday . February looks to be the most active severe weather month per historical data though March is often thought to be a more active one as well.

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