"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Active Weather Pattern Possibly Into Saturday - Possible Spin - Ups / Waterspouts Being Watched For

Sunrise Squall - North Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY: Unsettled weather pattern to continue, with variations, today through Saturday with some 'twists' to the  local state weather pattern through that time. 

Low pressure, though weak, is located SW of Port Charlotte early this Thursday afternoon. This low is a low level reflection of a broader mid-upper level low pressure zone across the state of Florida. 

In the next 48 hours the surface low though weak is expected to transition into the Western Atlantic somewhere east of Volusia County. In the meantime it is the areas mainly to the east and south of that path that weather could be most unsettled (with a larger focus over South and South Central Florida). 

The Storm Prediction Center is watching for possible brief tornadoes/waterspouts as a result of the overall synoptic (large scale) set-up as a result of this low pressure zone coupled with surface based instability even today, and might hold true tomorrow. 

The areas of interest for 'best chances' of a spin up/ strong wind gust with a storm will shift around with time . As of the latest model runs it appears the areas to watch could shift a bit further north into Friday and even the first part of Saturday to late morning or noon time. 

Areas the Blog is Watching Today and Into Friday - Early Saturday - this areas is not exclusive for today though...still might need to watch as far north as Melbourne, FL later today
 Apart of the 'risk areas'...showers and/or thunderstorms of cloudier than the usual skies will for the most part continue. Winds though at the surface will start to shift as the low pressure begins to move out to the northeast (at least as is forecast now). In doing so, the east coast will 'lose the onshore wind component within the next 36-48 hours as they become more from the south to southwest, and eventually from the west. 

FRIDAY: Again as noted will need to continue to watch what happens with the low pressure at surface and aloft. It is the combination of that factor coupled with instability that will be the deciding factors, but pin[pointing those areas must susceptible to the most active weather is close to impossible to speak of specifically . Using the forecast guidance as a best guess - active weather chances could continue potentially to as late as noon time or so on Saturday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Chance of activity continues if ample moisture remains but the focus will shift further north over time. If ample moisture is no longer available by mid-late Saturday afternoon, things might improve significantly over recent days.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Much drier weather in store with lighter wind. NHC is watching for potential tropical cyclone development east of Florida should things development as guidance implies might be the case; however, Florida would be in the clear already.

No very cool spells are foreseen yet, and possibly rain chances will increase heading toward Thursday .

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