"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Strong Storms Possible West Central Late Today

Engulfed by Atmospheric Waves of Turbulence in Cape Canaveral Florida

TODAY: Most vital stats are in place for the prerequisites of late day storms, some strong, toward the west half of Florida particularly Southwest Central to as far north as almost Ocala. Other storms though could become strong from boundary collisions once the pot gets mixed.  With east to west steering the bigger storms will occur along the west coast sea breeze later outside of outflow from earlier activity that 'out rushes' from activity toward that boundary particularly from east of Sarasota to Brooksville (which is located not too far north of Tampa Bay but in from the coast). The east side should remain mainly dry but for a chance of an overnight to early morning shower or two near or before sunrise such as the thunderstorm offshore the Cape  pictured below. Some stronger activity could occur WSW of Lake Okeechobee though not shown below.

View over Cape Canaveral Yesterday

SUNDAY: Steering doesn't change much at all for many days ahead, the stickler is primarily moisture availability on any given day. As of now, Sunday appears to be a bit less active, but then the next day there is more moisture, and then the next day less, as if waves of moisture pass through with subsequent drying; but timing of moisture coincident and critical to the afternoon hours - post peak heating- really is too difficult to determine with a  high degree of certainty.

"Jonah in  the Whales Mouth  "
BEYOND: Not much change nor has one been realized by any of the models. The west to east steering of storms streak of Summer 2014 seems to be over and little change is expected but  toward the end of the statewide storm season. Possibly toward the end of the first week of September or into the second a change will occur. Thus, the only chance of rains on the east coast will be oceanic in nature.

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Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Unusually "Warm" Today - Possible Showers/Storms in Only Select Locations

TODAY: Very warm today, warmer than yesterday even..but not quite record breaking? (See below statistics from the Melbourne NWS for an example pertaining to their area of responsibility in Central Florida as a start.) In regard to rain chances the more prevalent agreed upon location is over interior portions of South Florida. The only other spot that has been consistently appeared in the GFS model  across 4 runs is eastern portions of North Central late, as of after 6-7pm through even after midnight. That area, if it occurs, has included that area shown in the graphic (in general). It might only end up being cloud cover in some areas if at all, especially over Brevard or East Central Brevard.

BEYOND: Frontal boundaries at various levels across the state at various times as the parent lows are well to the north of Florida, but the predominant fixture is high pressure now over the Southeast Gulf building northward and expanding into most of the Deep South region and even further north than that in coming days making for a more northerly flow with a steering toward the western component. This would mean mostly dry conditions for the east coast south of I-4 to maybe the Cape area at times for several days, with most activity otherwise west of I-95.

The only change to the pattern is shown in the form of something from the tropics now referred to as an Invest (an area under investigation).  With that high in place, nothing will be coming in from the west for quite a while. 

Guidance has varied on strength and direction of this area of interest from run to run, but regardless of what this area does at least at this point, no significant changes in the current unfolding pattern is shown to be revealed until the August 26-27 time frame...or in about a week as things stand as of the 2AM run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast model. 

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Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Name That Tune

"You Askin' Me?!"

TODAY: Dry pattern in place at least through Friday though models differ significantly on both where and when and in what form (strength of storms) the rains will be in a broad sense of the words.

But for today, most models already busted up near I-10 where some showers that are 'not supposed to be there' are now occurring. And in the model where they are occuring they are doing so further south, or in other words per that model, they are not there. But extrapolation of current events combined with satellite llop interpretation wihtou trying to make too many forward guesses (suppsedly educated)..would mean a chance of an Isolated storm or at least..a patch of cloud cover toward Central Florida very late if not toward to after sunset though after sunset would not jive with consistency of late. That said, a  graphic might tell the story a litlee better and even this can't cover the bases. Might be easier just to say that the least likely place for showers today is all of Central, esp. west central.

WEDNESDAY: In General we can go with the 2-Day pattern philosophy and so that outside of extremely extenuating circumstances , tomorrow will be similar to today but probably even drier on the state wide basis..or will it? In looking at the latest North American Model (NAM) it is implying that it will be quite dry but what's that on Thursday?

THURSDAY: In general, guidance agrees on the main synoptic scale mid-upper level features with a mid level trough crossing Florida along the eastern side mainly over-riding a surface high pressure area building into the Dixie Southeast, while the surface trough is nowhere to be found below it being fully absorbed by that pesky High that will be with us for at least a solid week. 

Yet, with the passage of the upper level feature temperatures around 8000 -12000 feet cool pretty well (?). ..The NAM is showing some really good CAPE (instability) on Thursday and strong vertical mid level velocities along East Central which would mean an isolated strong to severe storm late day toward Southern Brevard, Eastern Osceola, Indian River to interior Volusia County in general with more showers/storms further north. On the other hand, the GFS imposes no such animal so we'll see. But side bar, this blogger has paid little head to the NAM model beyond one day for over a year now, as it simply fails all too often (at least in the local sense).

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Though moisture will increase eventually most activity might only be realized inland to the west side of the state due to the storm steering currents (wind direction aloft). That means, dry for the far east side of the state up and down the coast for QUITE some time. The first truly dry spell almost all summer is in progress perhaps. But when will it end? Sea breeze convergence activity is in no way shown out into September at this rate, except for perhaps the west side which is a good two weeks. We'll see. 

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Monday, August 18, 2014

Loco For Thunder

TODAY: Loco for thunder, get'm while they're hot;
               In coming days, they will be naught.

Today appears to be the last day of a chance of storm coverage greater than around 20 percent by National Weather Service Standards. Greatest coverage area could end up being around the North and east side of Lake Okeechobee. Latest RAP model implies a late sea breeze convergence zone toward sunset after the atmosphere is already in the stabilization process but wouldn't hold it against it if storms can manifest (one or two) late toward that time in the Orlando southward  areas and north along the Suwannee River Valley Basin well west of JAX proper.  A stronger storm might be able to manifest somewhere in Brevard as well as near the Big Lake as a result of sea breeze outflow boundary meetings, but due to lack of a true west meets east collison until very late (as  implied as of 8AM only)...greater coverage of anything other than random garden variety 'thundershowers' is not anticipated.

BEYOND: Atlantic ridge axis which has been south of Central toward the Big Lake as far south as the Straits will lift north and pinch off in coming days. A part of which will bubble northward into the Dixie area after a trough passes by today and tomorrow. 

From that point on the winds aloft become more Northerly due to clockwise circulations around the high pressure area,  and drier/suppressing atmosphere in the uppers.... but moistures remains in the lowers. The overall experience will likely be very warm temperatures inland away from the sea breezes with higher heat indices due to moist surface dewpoint air with few clouds and/or showers to squelch the flames. 

So, while coastal residents are saying 'business as usual' , they will be basking in ignorance of what is occurring inland where  folks  in disgruntlement will  be crying, "who turned up the heat so late in the summer?!" Hope the schools have A/C up and in good working order or there is going to be some mighty gripey kids coming home for those whose school week begins today.

Otherwise, not much chance of rain for east coasters for a good week at least and only a slight increase of it much of anywhere until late week.

Top Image Courtesy of Jim "Dryliner"  (Cortez, CO)

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Sunday, August 17, 2014

Isolated Stronger Activity Possible after 3:30PM - Rain Chance Decline through Thursday

"Storm Off Cape Canaveral Saturday"

TODAY: Very brief post today as from the blogger's perspective virtually every model seems to be off in some way or another. Additionally, could not see the latest KSC sounding which is now DAYS OLD to the general public to verify if they initialized very well, but can only presume that did. Regardless, satellite imagery  and current radar trends are not matching well with the latest RAP or GFS model, and as a result the Local Mesoscale Analysis Page from SPC isn't panning out too well either. The LDIS (Local Data Integration System) from MLB seems to be handling the overall situation much better as far as the way satellite interpretation at least appears.

Today's post is based on latest current events and how the GFS was trending the past several days for how today will work out. It's a mere rough guestimate without trying to get into the nicks and crannies esp. retarding South Florida  

That being written, isolated storms or showers to progress eastward along the west coast sea breeze front. East coast sea breeze to form mainly from the Cape south if not the coast of Volusian..and progress inland to around I-95 if not further than that south of Sebastian Inlet. 

Suspect that area might be where the strongest of activity occurs (IN GENERAL) but other activity might occur further south around the Big Lake Okeechobee as well. Temperatures aloft are likely the same as they have been and the atmosphere is  a bit drier which could result in strong wind gusts late day..where a storm can form as  a result of two if not three or more boundary collisions. 

A solid funnel if not tornado was observed and video taken of one west of Boca location yesterday despite that the typical textbook 'tornadic environment' was not present. BUt that's Florida in the summer for you.  Just because something is in a text book doesn't always make it exclusively right.

 Perhaps more of a 'landspout' tornado, but either way makes no difference. If today ends up being anything like yesterday after 3 or 4PM we might see some funnels near to off shore, though no one is calling for it.

BEYOND: Is the main Florida thunderstorm season calling it quits or on summer vacation? Time will tell, but the trend has been for a marked overall decrease in storm activity as high pressure forms over parts of Dixie putting Florida on the descending circulation side coupled with a less moist airmass. 

After which,  a deep easterly flow might ensure which would favor the west side of the state, though moisture is shown to be lacking even then compared to what we've had. 

TIme will tell, but it might be quite some time until we see the normal summer coverage of activity again, such as at least 10 days, and by then we'll nearly be in September and be able to see the end of the 'thunderstorm season' pot of gold  at the other end of the rainbow.

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Friday, August 15, 2014

Chances Of Hefty Storms with East Coast Sea Breeze Today

Friday Morning - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: No real need to go into great details as conditions similar to yesterday with two exceptions. One being cloud cover from earlier thunderstorms over toward the west coast is spreading eastward. Thinking is this cloud cover will move out or burn off during the late morning hours but also provide the impetus for east coast sea breeze initiation combined with the weakening frontal boundary that has been close to I-10 the past two days reducing the pressure gradient at the lower levels. The big question to watch for any activity at all is over east central if clouds do not clear out. With the possibility that they will, the graphic is marked as such with possibly heftier storms to occur with more lightning and higher rainfall totals  in the red area by the time the day is through. Some winds could gust to 40-45mph like in the past few days in the vicinity of the stronger storms.

YESTERDAY'S larger storms occurred from Southern Volusia southward to Palm Beach County, but the largest coverage of those ended up being just offshore as they strengthened on their way out to sea due to lack of any true sea breeze front making much inland progress (though there were some exceptions far south and in the general Sanford area).  

TOMORROW looks similar to today notwithstanding any other flies in the ointment such as the one for today with temperatures aloft expected to remain within 2 degrees of what they have been for quite some time now. Sea breezes to manifest otherwise with ample moisture and instability.

Storm Moving off North  Kennedy Space Center Yesterday

BEYOND: Storms again on Sunday with sea breezes active, but they become more sparse with rain chances going down for some areas and reducing yet even more through Wednesday. So far the better rain chances it appears will be over far north and far South Florida with a few isolated storms in between late in the day at the sea breeze convergence zone.

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Thursday, August 14, 2014

Will Uncivil War Ensue on the Eastern Front Today?

THE ONE DOLLAR QUESTION? Will the East Coast Sea Breeze
Manifest Prior to arrival of the
Wicked One from the West?

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: There really is not enough differences in the latest GFS available to go into greater detail over what holds true for today in the next two. West Coast sea breeze is already on the march as soldier storms erupt along the front lines marching eastward. The eastern side's front remains out at sea awaiting things to heat up over the interior in advance of the infantry. All in all, other than weak showers and some storms as like yesterday with some gusty winds. guidance does show an eastern sea breeze front coming ashore mainly south of The Cape. 

From the latest HRRR it (a  respectable penetration of the east coast's side) might not occur until after the west coast sea breeze has completed it's translation eastward. If that is the case, we can expect a few spots of greater activity than others, but nothing much beyond what we've seen the past few days. Even so, if the eastern battalion decides to come ashore and make some advances..the full assault might not be realized until after the advances work offshore under the momentum of the western front pressing them back toward the Gulf Stream. 

The advantage the East has today is a bit beyond the norm, which is why this is of interest. Latest Mesoscale Analysis based on the RAP model guidance is showing a Convective Available POTENTIAL Energy over 5000+ impeding on the Cape area. This is in the lower levels of High End Potential for very strong storms (canons are loaded with ample gunpowder), with an accompanying back of of -6C on the Lifted Index scale (which is sufficient but not high end). That's a lot of punching power! But regardless, if it is over a smaller area , backs to off shore, or simply dies off, it's worth watching. The better chance of a sea breeze prior to arrival of the West Coast brigade is further south of Ft Pierce though and not where all the ammo is being stored up. Otherwise, Carry oOn !


FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Other than the same questionable sea breeze of the east, temperatures in the mid levels might cool a bit but ww'll cross that Bridge Over the River Kwai  when we get to Tomorrow Never Dies.

"I See What You're Up To"

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Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Later Day Onset Central./South, But Will It Happen?

Questionable Area Today Runs from North Brevard to
 North Tampa Bay and South (Big Time)
TODAY: Not much change from yesterday other than there is no apparent tendency for the rains to be edge southward compared to this time yesterday and the deepest atmospheric moisture has lifted north a bit.
In a sense, this puts Brevard County in the position that Indian River and St. Lucie Counties were in yesterday. Further inland, the position gets even more questionable in regard to rainfall potential.

Otherwise, given that activity attempt to the south of I-4  appears will occur later and be more dependant upon outflow from activity currently in place north, instability could be albe to build up a bit better further south and the sea breezes will have an infinitesimal chance of developing as well but remain glued well east of I95 if not even US1. Therefore, best chance of stronger storms or even a storm at all is noted above in purple, but on the other hand due to extenuating circumstance, the same area and south has a chance to see little but a rain shower if the sea breezes can't kick in, noting that virtually no model is showing rain to break out today much of anywhere other than where it is already raining and perhaps over the Everglades west of the Miami metros other than some sprinkles toward East Central. We can see how the models do with the situation either way given that the morning GFS showed nothing to be occurring now where it is currently raining. Not worth much then is it? Insert Frowning Smiley face here. 

TOMORROW: Once again guidance is not generous with the rain chances but the GFS implies a sea breeze south of the Cape for the most part, so perhaps it is not taken into consideration a well enough uplifting mechanism to make very happy tall clouds that produce big booms. 

UFO over Jetty Park, Cape Canaveral
Again, the next model run which will be arriving in the next hour on this end might spell a different story, but for now given it is showing sufficient moisture so will go with a chance of storms of better proportions in the vertical extent near the east coast than has been the case lately. No cooling aloft though as those temperatures have remained within a 2 degree range for days now.

BEYOND: Increasing rain chances going toward week's end pretty sure with perhaps a change in the winds coming early next week. Guidance of the GFS is showing the ridge to lift north of the state as a tropical wave passes to the south, but exactly how far north it will lift and for how long goes beyond  model reliability if not even after only day 4. The GFS has shown long term easterlies setting up though which puts an end to late afternoon thunderstorms east half of state going out into day 10, but seems to be wavering on that even as of the 2AM model run.

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Monday, August 11, 2014

Early Onset of Storms Again Today

Storm Clouds Hover Over the Florida East Coast Sunday Afternoon

TODAY: As anticipated not much change today from yesterday. Sea breezes might again not develop north of the Ft Pierce to Rt 60 near Vero Beach area, especially if activity zips from west to east too early in the afternoon at locations from I-4 and north. Otherwise, KSC sounding shows a slight cooling at 20,000 feet and below that much is the same. More cloud coverage over the state today might offset translation from shower to thunderstorm capacities north of I4 in some areas for late morning,  but otherwise most of the same rules apply today with stronger activity after 2:00PM toward the east half of the state and offshore for marine interests through 7PM.

"Super Moon over Canaveral During Sunrise"

Some areas near the east coast could see some showers pop up prior to when the west coast sea breeze instigated storms arrive and if so that   would stabilize the local environments in those areas. On the other hand, those showers could set up or off a boundary for another location near by to have a slightly stronger storm than would otherwise be the case. Watch to the western horizons for approaching storms and for towering dark bases of clouds over head or close by no matter where you are today. Those often indicate that a storm is forming over you.

BEYOND: Tuesday looks like it might be a bit more dry other than over North and parts of North Central but will play it as it comes as has been the approach lately. Overall, it might not be until Wednesday when a sea breeze is more likely to work as far north as Central Florida East Coast but even so, steering continues to be from west to east, just like 'the good ole' days.

Unfortunately, there was 2 fatalities late Sunday  from the storms that went through due to those outflow winds.

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Sunday, August 10, 2014

Storms SR528 and North, Isolated to Non-Existent Further South

Storm  Over Brevard ! (Saturday)

TODAY/MONDAY: Will box these two days together in this brief weekend post as the differences per model guidance are not great enough as of this hour to warrant greater detail.  Warm again and humid most notable along the beaches of the east coast. Daytona tied a record high of 95F yesterday which wasn't really too much a surprise given the synoptic scale set up as was noted in a previous post. More warmth today as well , especially south of I4 to the east where any rains will be last to reach the beach.

View over the Cape from Canaveral

Activity already on the roll along the Big Bend (see below radar from 11:28AM) and parts of West Central/North noon prior. Activity moving eastward steadily. Westerly winds aloft with a steering toward the east at around 10-13 mph with no sea breezes along the east coast (yet) except far South Florida. Visible satellite imagery is showing the west coast sea breeze is the instigator and timing would bring it to the East Central side in about 5 -6 hours from now discounting any 'forward leaps' from collapsing storm induced OFBs (outflow boundaries) . 

Yesterday the east coast sea breeze across Central barely eked to the West Brevard County line as it was and today the chance of it getting even that far looks quite slim to none. If there is no sea breeze at all along the east coast the chances of a stronger storm go down even lower to near nil; but, lightning is lightning so best beware if out on the water this afternoon. The most deadly strikes are often the first ones and last ones. A strike is a strike, they don't play favorites.

The 'Stronger" storm chance part is more in regard to wind gusts of 35 mph + such as was recorded over mainly parts of Central and North Brevard County yesterday with activity east of I95 (mostly).

All in all a bit like yesterday with an earlier start to the north but the best chance of a stronger storm should be somewhere from Southern Volusia southward toward Sebastian Inlet (if generous) and east of I95  as model guidance is showing activity around the Lake Region of St. Lucie and Martin County as well though visible satellite imagery is quite sparse on the cumulluous cloud field in that area at this time relative to points further north. 

Regardless, better moisture convergence chance down that way IF a sea breeze can form combined with outflow from activity further north such as over parts of Brevard could offset the limiting factors and sprout up a solid storm with strong wind gusts South Central (east) as well very late today.

Same might go for tomorrow

TUESDAY: As noted prior posts, SW-W settering toward the east continues and might deepen even just a bit more with some dry slots imbedded in the flow. This will limit the rain chances to zero in many areas as a result while other areas will at least see some showers and thunder but exactly where will have to wait until the 'day of'. Best rain chances within 20 miles of I-10 in deeper moisture...and down the east coast toward maybe North Brevard into the Melbourne area as it appears now though

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Increasing moisture, with better storm chances over a larger expanse going into next weekend as well perhaps. Temperatures aloft continue to remain warm so no strong storm days other than of isolated nature late in the day are foreseen 

When Your Ship Comes in .... Get On

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Saturday, August 9, 2014

Chance of Isolated Stronger Storms , Cloud Coverage Again Late

Friday : Late Afternoon on the Beach Line, East Merritt Island 

RECAP: Yesterday materialized in not so much a surprising fashion though several strong wind reports that were sub-severe came in mainly as a result of  storm cluster outflow from South Central that worked north into Brevard County. Otherwise,  storm motion outside of that outflow which created it's own storm environment was close to none and coverage by end of day as was noted in 'purple' in the blog post is similar to what radar from early evening reflected  as the activity began to dwindle. (images end of post)

Pileus Iridescent Atop a Building Storm in Far West Cocoa 

TODAY: Steering today per KSC sounding and forecast models all point to slightly better storm motion today from yesterday, being from the WSW in general around 10-13 mph. The upper level temperatures were down to near -7.5C at 500mb and about 8C at 700mb, which is a drop of about 2C from this time yesterday. There is an absence of the low level inversion and not as many (or any) fog reports this morning as was the case yesterday although inevitably the atmosphere at time is still recovering from yesterday's rains and cloud coverage through at least mid-late morning. Otherwise:

"Lightning Zapped Through This Display as Light from the Setting Sun Pokes Through"

Chance of some stronger storms once again with plenty of rainshowers and thunderstorms almost statewide occurring at varying locations at varying times of the day. The strongest storms if to occur will be after 4:30pm with boundary collisions from earlier showers and Lake Breezes coincide with incoming sea breeze fronts from both coasts. The area most possible to have a stronger storm is shown in purple below, but as early afternoon begins, this could easily be narrowed down. Suspect though, it's going to be close to the same area as yesterday for the late day activities, only a bit further north into
Volusia County as well..

Yesterday the final collision was over Eastern Osceola County which emerged from outflow of storms that had formed earlier along the sea/Lake Okeechobee breeze collision further south. No two days are exactly the same , but it is interesting to see which dominoes will fall first and what chain reaction will ensure from that point on.

In the end though, some stronger storms with hefty wind gusts possible, again dangerous lightning as always, and cloudy conditions over a large portion of the state by the time sunset has beset with light to moderate lingering rains over whatever area ends up as the storm graveyard of the day.

TOMORROW AND BEYOND: Models consistent through at least next weekend with west to east steering to continue favoring the east side for the late day 'stuff'. Some drier air to be entrained around the ridge located east of Florida though, so Sunday through Tuesday will see some dry slots, and perhaps even no sea breeze from Central Brevard and north on one of those days. Best chances of late day storms so far tomorrow looks to be from North Brevard and North along the east side of the state.  Low pressure still being shown to form along the mid-Atlantic which will increase the mid-level winds from the WSW slightly, and at lower levels perhaps preventing the sea breeze altogether at least one day as noted. But that trough will be slow to move out: At least through the end of the week we'll be dealing mainly with two things.

1. Where the dry vs. moist air will be ; and
2. Where the east coast sea breeze will and will not form. That is critical for moisture convergence and uplift boundaries for late day storms.

BELOW: Yesterday's post and late day radar depiction comparison of the last of activity:


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Friday, August 8, 2014

Very Warm At The Beaches This Weekend, Late Storms Possible

Active Storm Near Viera as Viewed from Cape Canaveral Looking SSW

TODAY: Unlike what the GFS had proposed and as noted in the post yesterday, the temperatures aloft have not cooled as expected. Winds aloft are aloof, even lighter than yesterday. Moisture is still available but even so appears to be a bit less. There was a slight cap at the low levels today at KSC sounding time and the Convective Temperature was also warmer. What this all means for most of East Central Florida (esp. the east half or third of the central zone) is late activity today with little to go up along the onset of the east coast sea breeze during it's westward trounce. Regardless, given that the past two days there has been a strong to severe storm or two, will go with persistence of memory and give it another shot in the purple zone as a first hand guess for that possibility once again based on latest satellite imagery animations.

 Model guidance was of little use today in the' where regard' as they all were in disagreement with each other for the most part, so tossed out the precip fields altogether for today. For example, activity has already begun near the Big Bend to parts of Western North Central or nearly so west of Ocala (see below), and some models showed no activity there at all until nearly dark. Whoops.

TOMORROW: Tomorrow will be a variation of today from what it looks like now but with a slightly better learning toward the east in the storm motion regards. Maybe just enough to make storms actually crawl ahead. As noted yesterday a mid level trough is working its way across the Ohio and upper Mississippi River Valley today and tomorrow and eventually toward the eastern Mid Atlantic Coast into Sunday and Monday. But it's a slow mover but the changes over Florida will be noted nonetheless in the storm steering regard.

Warm to relatively hot tomorrow and Sunday and perhaps Monday at the beaches or east of US1 up and down the east coast north of Ft. Pierce mainly with delayed sea breeze occurring and nearly cloud free skies. Higher heat indices implied as a result. As the trough proceeds toward the Mid-Atlantic storm steering will noticeably increase on Sunday into Monday from west to east giving the beach side though higher numbers on the Old Mercury, at least some chance of late day relief in the form of clouds, rains, or storm beyond a delayed sea breeze which might not occur north of the Cape at all come Monday and/or Tuesday.

Also noting, that 'come Monday" and beyond, dry slots continue to be shown by the GFS meaning the forecast might go down to more of the 'Isolated Storms' subtitle, though inevitably, that 'Isolated Number" might occur in a more concentrated area (namely toward the East Coast) so in that regard, it's going to perhaps be a moot point especially east of I95 residents from JAX south to Ft Pierce.  That is to say, if an Orlando station says Isolated, that might only mean for the inland areas, and not the beaches.

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Thursday, August 7, 2014

Increased Storm Coverage Through Sunday, Stronger Storms Perhaps Friday/Saturday

Billowing Updrafts Displayed by this Cloud Formation Producing Rain Over Cocoa Beach on Tuesday  as Viewed Eastward From West Cocoa  

TODAY: Most model guidance is conveying that storm and/or rainshower coverage will be on the increase today with sea breezes being a bit more active (which wouldn't be hard since the past two days there has been very very little activity on them), but the peak performance time will occur as they approach each other after 3pm and begin to meet coincident with outflow boundaries generated by earlier showers/storms which form along the larger Lake Breeze boundaries. Multiple outflow collisions accompanied with post peak heating as it appears now will set off a chain reaction apparently per guidance of greater coverage today than has been the case in the past few days. Cloud cover abundant by sunset over many areas as a result.

TOMORROW: It was noted yesterday that some cold air aloft might enter into the picture originating from around Hispaniola and across Western Cuba as it rounds the Western Fringes of the  Atlantic Ridge axis (more commonly referred to as "The Bermuda High") in clockwise fashion. The GFS is still implying that will be the case coming into Friday afternoon. The cold air might have originated from a former TUTT (Tropical Upper (level) Tropical Trough). In any case and if so, colder air aloft in the 500mb (20,000 ft) level could provide the impetus for steeper mid-level lapse rates which have been fairly pitiful but typical the past several days . Outside of a storm near Orlando yesterday which was 'severe warned' (and verified by hail sized up to 1.00"), it's been fairly typical for August conditions.

BEYOND: The cold air aloft might also be present on Saturday as will abundant moisture. A mid level trough moving across the Central and Northern Plains today  and eventually the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic area   through tomorrow will suppress the Atlantic Ridge Axis further south going into Sunday through Tuesday (and longer perhaps) putting Florida in the same general prevalent steering for storms pattern that has been in place most of the season as evidenced by the higher than normal rainfall totals in many areas along the east side of the state into Central Portions. There does appear that some dry slots will be imbedded though in this particular flow pattern, so rain chances/coverage will likely go down for certain areas but exactly where at this point in time is too early to determine.

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