"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Increased Storm Coverage Through Sunday, Stronger Storms Perhaps Friday/Saturday

Billowing Updrafts Displayed by this Cloud Formation Producing Rain Over Cocoa Beach on Tuesday  as Viewed Eastward From West Cocoa  

TODAY: Most model guidance is conveying that storm and/or rainshower coverage will be on the increase today with sea breezes being a bit more active (which wouldn't be hard since the past two days there has been very very little activity on them), but the peak performance time will occur as they approach each other after 3pm and begin to meet coincident with outflow boundaries generated by earlier showers/storms which form along the larger Lake Breeze boundaries. Multiple outflow collisions accompanied with post peak heating as it appears now will set off a chain reaction apparently per guidance of greater coverage today than has been the case in the past few days. Cloud cover abundant by sunset over many areas as a result.

TOMORROW: It was noted yesterday that some cold air aloft might enter into the picture originating from around Hispaniola and across Western Cuba as it rounds the Western Fringes of the  Atlantic Ridge axis (more commonly referred to as "The Bermuda High") in clockwise fashion. The GFS is still implying that will be the case coming into Friday afternoon. The cold air might have originated from a former TUTT (Tropical Upper (level) Tropical Trough). In any case and if so, colder air aloft in the 500mb (20,000 ft) level could provide the impetus for steeper mid-level lapse rates which have been fairly pitiful but typical the past several days . Outside of a storm near Orlando yesterday which was 'severe warned' (and verified by hail sized up to 1.00"), it's been fairly typical for August conditions.

BEYOND: The cold air aloft might also be present on Saturday as will abundant moisture. A mid level trough moving across the Central and Northern Plains today  and eventually the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic area   through tomorrow will suppress the Atlantic Ridge Axis further south going into Sunday through Tuesday (and longer perhaps) putting Florida in the same general prevalent steering for storms pattern that has been in place most of the season as evidenced by the higher than normal rainfall totals in many areas along the east side of the state into Central Portions. There does appear that some dry slots will be imbedded though in this particular flow pattern, so rain chances/coverage will likely go down for certain areas but exactly where at this point in time is too early to determine.

No comments: