"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Marginal Risk of Brief Severe - Record Rainfall Totals Exceeded 2 1/4 - 4 " For Date

Search for the Catch of the Day

TODAY: One more day of off and on again rain (some areas much more 'on' than 'off) with a 'Marginal Risk' (in Storm Prediction Center (SPC) terms) mainly South Central - South of severe wind gusts and/or brief tornado. More rainfall records could fall. A few official reporting locations reported record rainfall totals for the date yesterday from Vero to Southwest Florida to West Palm though certainly other 'non-official' areas likely broke  records as well - those will go left unknown forever since no recorded logs exist for those areas.

OTHERWISE: One more Jet Speed max of 140kts is approaching Florida now approaching the South Central Gulf. Greatest instability will remain from near Lake Okeechobee and south. There appears to be two boundaries. One located in that area and a bit of a pseudo-version of it to stretch from near Tampa toward Port St. John to develop by noon time or so n the helicitiy fields. Forecast discussions are hitting on South and South Central (Miami even) ; however, latest guidance of 2AM is indicating a secondary area creeping northward toward "Dead Central" by noon time to be 'of effect' possibly through 3pm. That areas (south of the purple line below) would lack sufficient instability it appears at this time but will give it a heeding regardless).

Latest HRRR radar simulations are indicating some briefly stronger but very tiny pin-prick returns near Tampa and Canaveral area in general from late morning through early afternoon whereas South Florida by that time has little going on at all. Thus, a bit mystified at the current trend since 5AM that was not in place at the time some forecast discussions were being released.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Front to clear most of state other than South Florida by around mid-night or shortly thereafter with quick clearing of skies by Friday.

Friday will have brisk NW winds with a high barely eking into the lower 60Fs but at least it should be mostly sunny except South Florida where some high jet stream cirrus clouds might be in place.

SATURDAY: Very cool with decreasing wind  this morning with lows ranging from the mid-40Fs inland areas (Central and North) to near the 50F to mid 50Fs mark immediate East Coast Canaveral and South (warmest South Florida). 

Highs in mid-60Fs with light wind by afternoon. Saturday appears to be a very pleasant day apart from the chance of the veil of high cirrus clouds which will begin to clone themselves northward across most all areas south of I-4 and further north with time.

SUNDAY: Not quite as cool in the morning with a high in the lower 70Fs unless cirrus cloud cover is too much. Best chance of warmest temps well inland from the east coast north of West Palm and all of South Florida as winds will by then be southeast.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs approaching the lower 80Fs South Florida and Orlando area and west well away from the east coast where Atlantic water temperatures are in the lower-mid 60Fs. Don't know if we'll be hearing talk like "near record highs  possible" yet but it appears that might be possible. 

Next chance of rain emerges on Wednesday with the next front.  

Beyond this next front we might see a day or two of more 'Winter Like" temperatures reminiscent of our previous cold weather event but not for as along a duration   with a  limited coverage area as well. But as it is now, it could get cold again for a brief time. 

Additional potentially severe weather set ups are not being seen in the long-range forecast for the time being. 

All's clear! 

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