"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, August 1, 2016

Chance of East-side Rain 'Ticks-up" - Watching Tropics Today / Late Next Week

Small Thunderstorm West of Melbourne, FL Sunday Afternoon Viewed from Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Not much change from yesterday although moisture appears to be more ample per guidance than was otherwise suggested would be today. The overall 'scheme-of-things' remains unchanged  for the most part in regard to where the better rain chances will once again be  with the dry locations remaining dry.  The anomaly later today might be for showers and some thunder to impact the southeast coast into the Northern Keys after 9pm through midnight south of Ft. Pierce or West Palm Beach area.

TUESDAY: Ridge axis across Central to lift to North Florida leaving again dry locations dry (e.g. far east Central specifically). 

WEDNESDAY: Again, though no two days exactly alike with varying amounts of moisture available it appears a trough will being to lower heights along the eastern seaboard eventually causing the low level Atlantic Ridge axis to shift toward South Central or even to retreat further east with less direct influence on the state -- even to possibly south of Lake Okeechobee for a day or two into the weekend. If so..

THURSDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK: Better chance of rain and thunderstorms close to the east coast early afternoon some days toward mid-evening.  Even so, more cloud cover on certain days will put a dent in the heat for the over night hours by the  mere presence of debris clouds in those areas that have not only not seen nary much more than a few clouds from time to time. The past two runs of the GFS are showing this to be the case as does the CVS-V2.

TROPICS:  It looks like a named tropical storm will be forthcoming somewhere in the West Central Caribbean south of the Dominican Republic (and moving west ) possibly later today with no threat to Florida. Otherwise, both the GFS and CVS-V2 show the chance that an even better defined system might traverse along a similar course to enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico well out after Day 10. Whether the course of motion of 'said yet to exist system' is reliable is well too far out  to bother being of concern (if it even does manifest), though the time draws nigh for the tropics to 'heat up' -- the ocean temps certainly have.  
In any case, the hints are that it might be worth watching for come the August 10th time frame and beyond.

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