"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Breezy and Cool, No Measurable Rain For 5 Days (At Least)

COLD FRONT now in the Atlantic South across Cuba will eventually go stationary as it confronts High Pressure further east. Low pressure at all levels wraps up over the Great Lakes. High Pressure building across all Southern Tier states and the Northern Gulf. Area of unsettled weather from the South Central Caribbean toward Central America to persist for at least another week...any development should be slow, but has potential for greater organization during the coming weekend. 

TODAY: Cool start to the day. Coolest in a long time. Tallahassee reached 37F this morning, coldest in the state and equal to that of Laramie , Wyoming. Other areas have been colder though from the north central Plains toward Minnesota where temperatures were in the 20Fs in many locales. Tornado in South Florida rated EF-2 on the Dr. Ted Fujito Enhanced Tornado Scale.

STRONG JET STREAM nearly over head. Florida is in the left exit region, so that combined with high clouds streaming northward from the Southern Caribbean off of an area of 'disturbed weather' could create some of the wisps of cloud overhead periodically. Circled are the speeds of those winds well aloft in knots (miles per hour is faster than those numbers reflected). In the summer months, for comparison, these values are closer to 5-15 knts.

Cold air stratocumulus clouds should continue to impact the west side of the state from Tampa and South on brisk WNW-NW winds off the warm Gulf waters. These could advect (push toward) South Florida and the lower Keys. A few streaks of high cirrus clouds could pass over head from time to time as well almost anywhere , but will be very thin.  Highs today along and north of the "Magic Dividing Line" in the upper 60Fs and in the lower to mid-70Fs south of the line, although temperatures along the immediate west coast could be a bit cooler due to the clouds. WNW-NW winds during early-late afternoon of 15G22mph, a bit stronger on the west coast side. No rain. Lows tonight in the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs as far south as the north banks of Okeechobee. Immediate East Coast from Cocoa Beach South close to 56F.

FRIDAY: Cooler start to the day than this morning, with similar daytime highs, although it should warm up a bit more in the afternoon as winds decrease and become more northerly. No longer coming off of the Gulf, clouds should not be an issue tomorrow toward the west coast. Pristine afternoon.

SATURDAY: Very cool once again, but not quite as cool as Friday morning, A1A lows similar to Friday morning. Afternoon highs in the mid-70Fs most everywhere and almost clear.

SATURDAY LATE DAY: Possible light onshore flow from the NE, accompanied by a few stratocumulus clouds. ..especially toward sunset North Central. A minuscule few  raindrops could fall near the coast, but we'd have to be out side with palms raised upward to find them. Most likely if ever after dark.  

Watching the southern Caribbean. The NAM implies better organization or chance of tropical development toward Central America but will disregard at time due to zero impact anywhere either way. Precipitable water values should rise more over South Florida during this time and into next week, but believe any rain spits to occur Saturday or Sunday will be further north, when the mid-level trough (and cooler air aloft) finally puls east and lifts north, leaving a decaying mid-level boundary across South Central as has been depicted to occur by the GFS for several days now and which the NAM of this morning now implies will occur. Cooler air in the mid-levels NORTH of that boundary will improve mid-level lapse rates for potential rain spits, despite the more moist overall atmospheric profile further south where temperatures aloft will be warmer limiting lapse rates.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY : Similar to late Saturday, mostly sunny with a better chance of coastal clouds and a rain spit, mainly toward dusk and sunrise. Lows slowly warming from the east to west side into early next week, with afternoon highs in the mid-70Fs...warming to the upper 70Fs to near 80F plus or mins 2-3 degrees by Tuesday inland, but remaining near 78-79F along A1A. By Tuesday, the A1A corridor up and down the east coast could be in the 70Fs round the clock as winds blow  toward shore across water temperatures in the upper 70Fs. Inland highs several degrees warmer by Wednesday.

NEXT FRONT: The GFS is backing off with each and every run on the impacts the next front will have in the Thursday or Friday time frame. Due to slow moisture return, the latest run showed the front to go through dry with a resumption of one cool morning with a quick rebound to status quo to what we will experience by Monday. This seems a bit questionable though for South Florida, but even still is the consideration that the front never makes a clean passage at all. The GFS is very aggressive with that scenario though.

BEYOND: Latest GFS implies no rain until November 1 with very typical fall like weather. However, much  will depend on what happens well to the state's south. Given the latest trends of the Jet Stream though, believe any tropical development or system will never see the light of day on Florida, but showers will be on the increase across the middle and lower Keys heading toward mid to late week, or at least the chance of them will increase based on the latest information available.


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