|SUNDAY MORNING Living Up to It's Name - Cocoa Beach Pier|
Late morning Cape Sounding shows 700mb/500mb temps running around 9C/-7.5C respectively with an extensive dry layer in the mid-levels.
This drier layer should be able to fill in a bit after daytime heating sets the sea-breeze wheels in motion heading for a moisture convergence clash later today in the presence of moderate surface based instability.
Latest satellite animation shows an 'apparent region' which might be considered an overall 'favorable zone' as shown based on 'eye ball extrapolation' (only).
Steering today is a tad bit stronger from west to east north of Sebastian Inlet than previous days; however, given the drier air in mid levels and seeing how there iso other triggers aloft apart from localized mesoscale boundaries , storms could rapidly shoot up and just as quickly wane sending outflow boundaries in every which-way making for the firing up of another storm up to 60 miles from its parent source region. Therefore, exactly 'where any one storm will go' is nearly impossible to say. Central to East Central seems to be the favored spot by model consensus with a secondary area across SW Florida (not depicted)
MONDAY: This day guidance shows a significant decrease of any activity but won't buy into it for now so will ride with persistence of last two days though steering might come closer to non-existent as surface to mid level Atlantic ridge axis lifts to Central Florida, meaning, any chances for the coast to see any rainfall at all might be completely out.
TUESDAY: GFS continues to show a rather random patch of moisture lifting north slowly around the ridge from South Florida bringing increased rain chances for all regions south of I-4. Time will tell, and chances are it's over done but continuing to watch as GFS has been consistent in this regard. Coasts could use some rain south of DAB.
BEYOND: Ridge axis remains across Central-North Central with very light to non-existent steering winds and colder air aloft if the GFS guidance holds any credibility. Continued isolated activity late day...with iso-strong always a possibility. Other wise, remaining quite warm inland but with sea breezes initiating sooner in the day for less warm than of late in the areas within 5-10 miles of the coasts.