"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Chance of An Isolated Strong/Severe Storm Friday - Coldest Yet All Sunday

El Nino' Sunset Wednesday Evening
(See Image end of Post for Sunrise, Same )

TODAY: Gradually modifying air mass over the state today with continuance of high cloud jet stream cirrus clouds streaming overhead as seen on visible satellite animation loops for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida to Mexico. Light wind otherwise with highs in lower 70Fs , tempered by the high clouds.

TONIGHT - EARLY FRIDAY: Somewhat of a warm front will lift rapidly north followed by southeast to south wind increasing in strength toward and after sunrise Friday. Higher dew point air will attempt to lift northward as front moves in from the west with a possible 'squall line' of some thunderstorms and brief but heavy rain-showers especially over the Loop Current and possibly impacting the Western Panhandle region. 

Chance that some  supercells will occur well west of Tampa possibly visible on their radar, but unlikely such creatures will make it to shore at least not with the same caliber.

MID-DAY FRIDAY: Chance of showers almost anywhere emerges by mid-late morning  especially along the West Coast from Brooksville south through Sarasota and possibly even the peninsula. Some of these could be strong to severe near the Tampa Bay area give or take 30 miles north/south. 

Though no guarantees tomorrow of 'severe' weather the signals are pretty strong for sufficient bulk shear coupled with cold air aloft down through the mid-levels for at least 'very windy rain showers'.  Probably becoming a bit overcast though wouldn't tell that from looking at the forecast high temperatures tomorrow well into the mid-70Fs all of Central/South Florida. 

Still calling for the Central Zones in general to bear the heaviest impact from this next system which is indicated in the graphic that follows.

Developing storm system over the Deep South might slow down forward motion and take a bit of a negative tilt as the Southern and Northern Branch jets attempt to coalesce and as a result.....

LATE MORNING - MID AFTERNOON: Forecast discussions from the weather offices note that the NAM model might be too slow on the fronts arrival, for if it were correct the chance of stronger storms increases. 

However, the GFS which was faster with the front seemed that it MIGHT actually have been picking up on a pre-frontal trough and not the front itself (as noted yesterday might be the case). 

For the more worse case scenario as a 'just in case' measure, will go  with the prefrontal trough quickly taking shape late morning to early afternoon down the spine of the state as both the morning NAM and GFS runs seem to be saying the same thing now in that regard.

Surface based instability will be limited but bulk shear and some directional shear / convergence along that trough could provide for limited low level forcing along that boundary , if so, some stronger activity would come together down the spine of the state as far south as maybe even northern Okeechobee County but be very isolated. 

See below:

Cold Front west of Tampa (1PM).
Better chances of strong activity shown to be Central Florida
and Much of the Panhandle region (earlier in the day)

 Brief Window of Opportunistic Misfortune appears will be from 11AM - 3PM Central Florida and a bit sooner West side of State though this could change, especially if there is no pre-frontal trough at all in which case the Risk factor is even lower . 

There are no official forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center for Strong Storms tomorrow Central Florida ATTM (at time).

BEYOND: Chance of showers and cloud cover continues into Friday evening though very sparse  and at least into early-mid morning Saturday as gusting westerlies kick in behind the strengthening low pressure system pulling well away from the state in the post-frontal environment.  Chances are we'll be seeing a clearing at first but then more clouds might move in later.

Cloud cover for at least the morning hours Saturday in the form of lower clouds with breaks which might become wider going into the afternoon hours.  Highs in the mid 50Fs with winds gusting over 25mph.  

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy at first with gradual improvements but timing is questionable as to how fast we clear out. The sooner the better; regardless, windy and very cool never seeing 60F .

SATURDAY NIGHT: Rapid clearing so far seems to be the consensus if not earlier on, but especially toward midnight; and thus in ushers the drier slot of cold air in from the north northwest.

SUNDAY MORNING; This stands so far to look like what might be our coldest morning at least wind-chill factor wise  on a statewide basis this winter with lows well into the mid-upper 30Fs many parts of Central Florida. Waters in the area of Brevard are still relatively warm which then might have a modifying effect on the outer Barriers, regardless, even upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs (immediate coast?)  with gusts of wind to 25 mph won't make for beach picnics this morning nor into the afternoon where lower 50Fs if not some upper 40Fs far North Central will be the norm this day.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Wind should begin to notably decrease by early-mid afternoon.

MONDAY: Wind will die off rapidly after dark (and sooner on Sunday ) toward   such that Monday should be dawning with very light wind amazingly shown by the GFS model to be from...the east ..but more than likely more of a 'drift'. That wind though might not make any impact even at the beach until well after sunrise.  But here's recovery for us, highs in the mid-upper 60Fs already. Yipee!

BEYOND: Guidance between models according to forecast discussions out of the NWS Offices who have better access to data are not making any bets yet regarding the next front toward midweek next week (roughly the 27th). 

For now will go with what was already stated..another chance of storms but so far implications are of even lower caliber strength wise than tomorrow which is lower than it was the other day. 

But who knows for sure in either regard at this point?  But given the current nearer term outlook, suspect there will be more instability available on Wednesday if latest trends through Tuesday being shown continue and we might be watching South Florida more.

Thursday Morning El Nino' Sunrise

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