"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Chance of Iso-Strong Storms - Possible Large Rainfall Totals Wednes Thurs Day

TODAY: Little change in forecast philosophy from previous post. Model guidance yet has come to closely sync up despite that 'said upcoming event' is less than 24 hours away (through 60 hours).

Some east coast showers have materialized lifting north as ingredients slowly come together during the remainder of the day into the over-night. Nose of 120 knot southern stream jet across the Gulf Mexico approaches Florida as mid-upper level impulses move across the Mexican Altiplano and Rio Grande Valley (RCV) regions.  Additionally, it appears another player might work in lifting north and east from the Yucatan Channel. 

Line of thinking is it is this impulse (if so) that would be the most responsible for any severe weather come early - late morning Wednesday for Southwest Florida to parts of the east coast any where from Sarasota and south through The Keys and up the east coast toward Cape Canaveral from the hours of 5AM - 11AM (from southwest to northeast with time).

WEDNESDAY: As noted above chance of an isolated storm, possible producing a quick tornado but otherwise some large rainfall totals. Storms do not appear they will necessarily be moving real fast unlike the previous events. There are other factors at play such as isentropic upglide and other terms which we'll leave out from discussion's sake, but be it so...adequate moisture and retreating warm air lifting north and over-running as as a bit of a wamr front forms.... combined with colder air aloft and increasing dew point air at the surface into the mid-60Fs with shearing winds (though not as strong as previous event) combined with difficult to time mid-upper level impulses either from the south (Wednesday) or west (late Wednesday through Thursday) adds up to a chance of the chance of some rather large rainfall accumulations for this time of years  going into Thursday if not even Thursday night as well.

NOTE: This would not be a 'continuous rainfall event'..there might well be a long break in any potential action from the first parts of Wednesday toward Wednesday evening (or other times as well).

Better chances so far for stronger storms appears to be first parts of Wednesday then again well after dark to just past midnight Wednesday night - Thursday as a second wave of disturbances approaches Florida from the west. 

But, again, timing and location of said disturbances is uncertain as is the degree of available convective potential energy. 

Like last  nearly CAPE-less events, instability has been lacking and this upcoming situation appears to be no different, though there might be more available than there was for these last 'forecast threat' before we had that cold spell along either the west of east coast or both of them for that matter.

THURSDAY: Again, more chances of rainfall but timing and locations are near impossible to determine without better guidance consistency. There is a chance as graphic implied that some locations might see in excess of 2-3" of rain when all is said and done, whereas some other areas might see 1/2" or less. It will depend mainly on where disturbances cross the state, but slower storm motions should allow rainfall totals to add up to more efficient rain gauge fillers this go around.

FRIDAY: Regardless of which model we look at, there appears to be consensus that all is pretty much said and done by around midnight Thursday night to before sunrise Friday.  Clearing on Friday and cooler with breezy NW winds with highs in the lower- mid 60Fs.

WEEKEND: Breezy at first and quite cool though not like our previous event. Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs and highs generally in the lower-mid 60Fs on Saturday but warming on Sunday.

Though Sunday will start out cool, by now we are getting a bit acclimated to the colder air and besides, it'll warm into the upper 60Fs at least by Sunday afternoon as wind already begins to swing around to southerly again.

WARMER MONDAY - THURSDAY afternoons with highs in the 70Fs and some lower 80Fs in a few locations. Dry as finally temperatures will average out to above climo.

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