"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Broader Expanse of Rain and Thunder Type Storms

Mid-level instability over Florida at Dusk Made for Yet Another Eye Candy Like Sunset Tuesday Evening
TODAY: Not a whole lot different today from yesterday, but there are some differences. It easier to state those differences then to obsess over the entire synoptic scale set up, which all in all is quite uneventful filled with misleading benignessisities.

1. Unlike yesterday, there is a more even distribution of instability over much of the state

2. The day is starting out with high moisture values as of noon , mainly across the state from east to west from Central Lake Okeechobee north to a line from South of Daytona to South of Cedar Key (Brooksville). All in all though, even the area as far north as St. Augustine has ample moisture which could generate more of its own west of the St. Johns River. The only place that really wouldn't  support thunderstorms, at least not until quite late today is far SE Florida from Boynton Beach toward South of Naples. THunderstorms might be able to work into that area, but right now really do not think so.

3.  There is no vorticity generation potential except across NE Florida from near Mims NNW toward east of Tallahassee...east of that line.   Temperatures aloft started out cooler than yesterday, but are forecast to warm during the mid afternoon to those comparable to yesterday.

4. Sea breezes are starting out earlier, with steering toward the WNW a bit weaker. This could clear out the immediate coast for Brevard County and north...until later which case activity would have to approach from the west later...but not by much..perhaps between US1 to I-95.

5. These is a weak inverted trough extending from an equally weak low pressure circulation over Tampa Bay...this could aid in waterspout development there if early activity allows for later regenration of storms..most storms today will be south of this inverted trough-like boundary. Oddly, the RUC forecasts this circulation to make inland penetration by mid- afternoon for a few hours before retreating. If so, activity could really pick up after 3pm...although for now..that might do so more toward the west side.

In a nut shell, storm motions will mostly be dictated by boundary interactions by mid-afternoon during the height of the day's activity, 3-6pm, but initially be from the SW at about 10mph..perhaps up to 15mph for a time just north of Lake Okeechobee.  There might be a brief lull in activity during the early afternoon during peak heating (especially on the eastern 1/3 of the state...this will allow the east coast sea breeze to work west of I-95 mainly north of Titusville. and south of Boyton this area it will progress a bit further toward the NW and W.

There appears to be a chance of waterspouts over Lake Okeechobee and perhaps near the Titusville area...and possibly along the shore line from Vero Beach toward Martin County...later during the mid-afternoon.

The only real hazards I see today otherwise are lightning strikes.  Localized street flooding possible over the Central Interior where storms linger during the late afternoon and into the early evening .

It is also possible that the activity south of Lake Okeechobee will only have a 'one shot' deal at a storm today. That being because anvil winds are forecast to spread from north to south today..which would shut off the heat supply far south from storms further north. However, SW FLorida is exempt from this factor.

Waterspouts could occur along the east coast almost anywhere early, but at this time the least favorable area for storms is most of the east side from Canaveral to West Palm..thus, activity might not get going in this area until sea/lake breeze mergers occur near the Big is possible the far east coast south of Titusville will not see storms until later today as inland activity spreads ENE ward, sending outflow boundaries further east with time. This is just a guess, but the scenario has been depicted in one piece of forecast guidance. The areas east of Lake Okeechobee is not included in this though..and is most likely to have a storm cross off shore earlier today .

Tampa Area Could Easily Recover from early activity by which point a waterspout could occur with a storm. In red, are where spouts could also occur before 3pm..other than North Florida...maybe a stronger storm there. The spout locations were chosen because localized but dormant low level boundaries might be residing there after convection which died out last night. There was a good outflow thru Canaveral last night..producing some winds gusts from Cape Canaveral out to the Cape...that wind was from the SE..but has since retreated. But even still...there could be some unobvious swirling going on just under 'the waters'. Same applies toward Lake Okeechobee where an outflow boundary ended up.
TONIGHT: It is also possible that a random storm or three could occur in an adventitious locations not otherwise specified.  Like last night, storms were able to go up and last until shortly before sunrise. This was actually depicted by models by afternoon to occur, just not where they were forecast to occur.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Looking more like another variation of the same theme, but with perhaps a sturdier steering of storms from SW to NE on Friday or Saturday...but most of this activity will likely start out away from any coast (but not by far)..and work offshore later these days after 4pm. This will have to be reassessed tomorrow.

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