|Could be isolated showers near east coast, especially Daytona and North, but most activity today should be geared more toward the west side, with thunder possible. Strong activity not expected of duration if any at all|
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Good luck! Model consensus is "there IS no consensus". The GFS is most consistent, and the ECMWF comes close, although its ensemble strays. So even there, no consensus within variations of the same model. Depending on what one favors, rain chances could be quite low over the weekend, whereas the latest GFS says, "Bring it on!". Without going into a break down of what each model is reading, we've already answered our own question. Who cares, it is superfluous information.
For blog purposes ONLY, it will be interesting to see what "TV Guys and Gals" say. One model shows a big storm going into Cedar Key, the GFS says leave it more of a trough and take a series of impulses across Central and South Central Florida, and others shrug and give up not really showing much of anything happening at all. One must wonder if the stations have a point system going on for success vs. non-success. If extended forecast is successful one has bonus points for attracting viewers, yet if the forecast is incorrect we hear nothing of it, and it fades away 'as if' nothing was ever said. In conclusion, no one knows what is to occur beyond even today for the most part. The bigger question is, "Why"?
First day of summer truly does mean first day of summer as far as the sun is concerned, it cares little of the weather its forces provide. We are in a transitional period . Some activity is actually retrograding back toward the west (from east to west) while other activity much to the north is trying to work against it (this is all well aloft) to maintain balance by continuing to move west to east.
In between, there is stagnation. Our pesky trough in the Gulf is one such entity. Best bet is to be prepared for better rain chances across more of the state, including the east coast on Saturday and Sunday. Evening news channels will have a better handle on the short term this evening, since this post can logically only proliferate on currently available information.
There is much discussion of a tropical storm forming here and there, hither and yon..GFS shows east of Florida, others show west. Best be on the alert by later Friday. There is always the opt out. Nothing will form at all.
Although, that seems highly unlikely at this point, wouldn't put it past us just yet. It's all a matter of when, where, and how well "something" forms. A projection at this point would not be far off as to describe this as being like putting a leaf in a babbling brook and trying to guess where it will land ashore with accuracy after passing through and amidst the swirling currents and eddies. Not to discard that we are watching both higher pressure to the north as well as a yet to develop low pressure trough. Everything plays in to the puzzle, so best advice at this point is to keep one's options open. It's not nice to fool mother nature.