"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Better Rain Chances Spine and West, Watching Tropics For Now

Could be isolated showers near east coast, especially Daytona and North, but most activity today should be geared more toward the west side, with thunder possible. Strong activity not expected of duration if any at all
TODAY: All in all, things are on track per yesterday's post with today being at least one day if not more of 'lull in the action'. Very very large inverted trough of low pressure for discussion purposes in general remains from near the Yucatan NE ward into the East Central Gulf with little motion, while steering and low level winds remain from the ESE-SE from surface through the mid levels along its eastern flanks. Moisture remains, but with little focus now as the sharper delineation of wind fields has become more 'rounded' since sunset last night. This was well foreseen as rain abated quickly during the transition after dark . Today should be a relatively nice day along the east coast with perhaps a few exceptions, but nice will be the ruling majority. Not so much so the further west one ventures, with guidance essentially honing in on some thundershowers and showers, and a few patches of rain as also depicted above. This is not to say perhaps on isolated thunder couldn't occur close to I-95 early on, but even so, that would be quickly departing toward the WNW-NW if not fading away in place. That's it for today.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Good luck! Model consensus is "there IS no consensus". The GFS is most consistent, and the ECMWF comes close, although its ensemble strays. So even there, no consensus within variations of the same model. Depending on what one favors, rain chances could be quite low over the weekend, whereas the latest GFS says, "Bring it on!".  Without going into a break down of what each model is reading, we've already answered our own question. Who cares, it is superfluous information. 

For blog purposes ONLY, it will be interesting to see what "TV Guys and Gals" say. One model shows a big storm going into Cedar Key, the GFS says leave it more of a trough and take a series of impulses across Central and South Central Florida, and others shrug and give up not really showing much of anything happening at all. One must wonder if the stations have a point system going on for success vs. non-success. If extended forecast is successful one has bonus points for attracting viewers, yet if the forecast is incorrect we hear nothing of it, and it fades away 'as if' nothing was ever said.   In conclusion, no one knows what is to occur beyond even today for the most part. The bigger question is, "Why"?
All upper level low pressure circulations., moving very little are shown along the the north..several others, but only one depicted here. The forces are at a stand-off during the transitory shift in the tropics which can be explained by the earths title toward the sun creating a balancing of heat around the entire globe.

First day of summer truly does mean first day of summer as far as the sun is concerned, it cares little of the weather its forces provide. We are in a transitional period . Some activity is actually retrograding back toward the west (from east to west) while other activity much to the north is trying to work against it (this is all well aloft)  to maintain balance by continuing to move west to east. 

In between, there is stagnation. Our pesky trough in the Gulf is one such entity.  Best bet is to be prepared for better rain chances across more of the state, including the east coast on Saturday and Sunday. Evening news channels will have a better handle on the short term this evening, since this post can logically only proliferate on currently available information. 

There is much discussion of a tropical storm forming here and there, hither and yon..GFS shows east of Florida, others show west. Best be on the alert by later Friday.  There is always the opt out. Nothing will form at all. 

Although, that seems highly unlikely at this point, wouldn't put it past us just yet. It's all a matter of when, where, and how well "something" forms. A projection at this point would not be far off as to describe this as being like putting a  leaf in a babbling brook and trying to guess where it will land ashore with accuracy after passing through and amidst the swirling currents and eddies.  Not to discard that we are watching both higher pressure to the north as well as a yet to develop low pressure trough. Everything plays in to the puzzle, so best advice at this point is to keep one's options open. It's not nice to fool mother nature.

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