"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, June 3, 2019

One Last Chance for East Coast For Showers/Storms Today

Thunderstorm offshore Cape Canaveral, June 1, 2017
TODAY: Literal variation today from yesterday, at least in regard to sensible weather. There is some 'invisible' variation though from yesterday. 

Forecast soundings are indicating a bit of an 'inverted V' type of profile, which is conducive for strong wind gusts in any heavy downpour  (or near them) that could or can develop. The issue with a sounding such as one being forecast (if it is real, and we'll know more when the latest KSC sounding comes in later this morning) is that if there is not just the right amount of moisture above 'the V" of the sounding, storms won't form at all.

Given the current trends in short range guidance and going with persistence, will liken today a bit  to yesterday. There are times when rain patterns occur in twos or threes from my observation,so if that is the case, we might end up seeing only a 'true' storm or so near the east coast very late despite what forecast models are showing in the forecast precipitation depiction of 'daytime' storms (but that is just a hunch). 

That was the case last night around 9 pm as a few storms suddenly erupted in the dark of night over Brevard County but during the day there was only one in the South Central area.

Storms moving offshore after dark

 That said, warm today, even at the beaches until the sea-breeze can form.
There is a chance it won't truly manifest until after 2 pm or so. Yesterday, it but barely penetrated inland any further than SR 3 in Merritt Island, at least that is, as of 4 pm it had not yet gotten any further inland than that (but if you were at the beach, who would know?).

Given the Inverted V profile of the forecast soundings and temperatures aloft being on the 'cool' though not overly 'cold' side, wind gusts in storms could be in the 40-45 mph range  easily (nothing damaging), but we might end up hearing some marine weather statements and who knows, maybe even a severe warning if things really ramp up which at this stage looks unlikely but not out of the range of possibilities.

TUESDAY: Pattern change as onshore flow (from the east) and steering becomes the dominant mode. The NAM (model) is showing pretty good coverage of activity down the spine of the state toward the west coast tomorrow, with the East side left high and dry; however, high cirrus cloud cover blow off from thunderstorm tops might spread across the east half of the state in various areas late day, resulting in a vague overcast by sunset.

WEDNESDAY: This day is being thought to be 'repeat' of Tuesday. The latest NAM just now coming in says, 'to the contrary' though. 

It is implying better sea breeze convergence right down the spine of the state with a slight trend to drift eastward. Given this  new manifestation, and one time observation only to this time, won't buy into it until subsequent model runs come in and there is agreement with other guidance.

BEYOND: Apart from the questionable 'Wednesday' will go with continuity with the GFS which once again shows a pattern shift over the weekend, with storms mainly focusing over all parts of the interior away from either coast, with a slight trend to favor even the beaches east-side by Sunday evening (but barely).

Even after that from Sunday onward toward mid-next week  the GFS continues to imply the onset of (to the bloggers opinion) the 'Wet Season" ; that being precipitable water values at or above the 1.7" mark on a nearly continuous basis. 

That does not mean that suddenly everyone is going to get rained on, or that one might even get any rain for a week at all. Only that the moisture is available for storms. Other factors such as temperatures aloft, low to mid level atmospheric instability, varying triggers other than sea breezes such as 'vorticity maxes' and upper level temperature variations all combined play a role in where, when , why and how showers/storms will form and in what direction they will go.

The supposed 'tropical entity' for late late in the period (mid-month) seems to have disappeared from the GFS model now, which could have threatened the Gulf Coast, but moisture being lifted northward is still being advertised. (this is not a reference to the same INVEST currently getting attention).

 Given that, would think that the Wet Season will begin some time within the Jun 9-14th time frame.

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