FRIDAY: Continued easterly flow develops and dry air works in more so. Next shot of showers could be on Saturday coming in off the ocean as the dry slot erodes.
TROPICS: Latest GFS now coming out up through Friday is close to the previous run. It is noticed that there is little in surface winds around the surface circulation which is now shown approaching Jamaica but the mid level circulation is much larger. It is north of the Dominican that the strongest winds are actually manifest, likely as a result of pressure gradient winds from high pressure to the north. The NWS/NHC centers are watching this system as amplified across the airwaves. It is noticed that if this storm becomes a hurricane it will be minimal, at least as it appears now although that could change. We might have to watch, given the weak surface reflection, for a new center to emerge 'elsewhere' which could be north of the landmasses. If so, the track of the system would have to shift more toward the east. As it appears now there is a close bundle of tracks that take the system toward the Central Key's and east toward Miami/Ft Lauderdale as a solid tropical storm or minimal hurricane. The NAM insists on forming a new center north of the eastern tip of Cuba as the circulation passes between the DR and that island, possibly as a result of frictional drag of the low level winds across the DR. (Dominican Republic). The main squeeze models insist on a bundle along to just off shore the west coast toward Panama City narrowly skirting Ft Meyers and Tampa (in general). Much will be revealed on Saturday, as warmest sea surface temperatures are showing up north of Cuba. In the last few hours convective cloud tops have warmed significantly over a region that had flared up earlier. In short, time will tell with little expected gain in strength, but refer to the NHC (the hurricane center).