TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY * FLORIDA BAY
|Official forecast track is wll off the east coast, yet a tropical storm watch is now in Effect from the North Brevard County line and South as pre-suppositioned in the post yesterday could occur. Note that most tracks are well east of the state|
TODAY: Some more clouds again today as noted could be the case in the previous postage...no cost for packaging and handling. Some showers came in pre-sunrise at Canaveral as observed at the homestead, and more could be on the way later today per latest satellite visible imagery observed loops from this here man-cave.
Regardless, some showers mainly from Volusia and South toward South Florida remain in the cards today mainly from Brevard to Indian River and St 'Lucile' Counties. This will continue to be the case at any time for the same regions up and down the coast through Thursday into Freitag as conditions begin to be influenced locally by what remains of Sandy after crossing Cuba.
Emphasis encouraged on placing uncertainty regarding 'what comes next'. Feast or famine, Beast or mammon, for the Florida east coast? In that regard, we can understand the Hurricane Center is placing emphasis per their own admittion in their graphics on the clustered tracks of the Hurricane Models further east, yet still has hence put forth a Storm Watch as noted per top of blog post.
So what Gives?
It would be best to show below what is not shown on those tracks. Especially the GFS model, the NAM model, and the NOGAPS models; Global Forecast System, North American, and Navy NoGaps models show a track more toward the west than the clustered tracks of the Consensus/Ensemble plots which makes perfectly good and reasonable sense. It appears the watch areas are in effect as a 'just in case precautionary measure at this conjuncture', or is it merely conjecture? Too soon to say as the old saying goes. Because as we can see:
|NAM shows 70kts coastal Brevard|
|NAVY shows big Tropical Storm force winds with center just offshore|
|LATEST GFS as of 8AM shows 90 KTS off shore and 70-80kts on the coast, winds in all cases from the North.|
THUS, point being, it's too soon to say which witches
which is which. Thus, be advised. Whoops, we
It's not too hard to put 2 and 2 together...but at this point it does not seem
to bother with the hassle until the storm clears or is upon the island of Cuba. In this regard, things still stand; "be prepared to prep" for strong NNE-N
winds, beach erosion, and high river waters and impossible bridge crossings, and power outages during the worst case scenario. On the other hand, it might not rain a drop.