"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, November 20, 2015

Frontal Assault en' Force Monday Central/North Florida through Tuesday

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 20th SUNRISE - Cape Canaveral, Florida
TODAY: Frontal boundary has proceeded into the lower South Florida and loses most of it's surface based identity. Another front will be approaching over the weekend. Above the surface the front will 're-emerge' mostly about 2000ft AGL though could work to the surface. Model guidance between the NAM and GFS varies VASTLY on when any rain could or might fall this weekend (as a fore-warning) - though the two come very close to agreeing as to when the secondary front will sever our ties with any simulations of 'summer like' temperatures for quite some time to come in the long term even.

Otherwise, better rain chances appear to be over South Florida today - though a shower or sprinkle could occur almost anywhere south of I-4 , it just looks fairly unlikely - at least until at least late day.

SATURDAY: Herein enters guidance disagreement. The bulk of any rain that could fall this weekend is advertised by the NAM to occur overnight late tonight to the first parts of Saturday. The GFS contends the better rain chances will be late Saturday into at least the first half of Sunday. For continuity will run with the GFS with better rain chances being overnight Saturday into the first half of Sunday (though could end much sooner) or linger for a time south of I-4 into early afternoon. Either way partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies looks to be in the offing for Saturday and SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Secondary front to proceed down the state from North to South making headway across 'Central exact' between 4AM -6AM with 'sig. drying' of the air-mass in toe. (see below image from the GFS 7AM Model Run)

NNW to North wind at first eventually becomes North to NNE later in the day. Cold air advection in process all day - though the overall air mass isn't 'especially ' cold (could be much worse this time of year). The areas north of I-4 and especially up toward I-10 will feel the brunt of this front - with temperatures dropping right up to if not even after sunrise even as far south as South Florida Monday morning. 

Highs might only reach the mid-upper 60Fs but if any cloud decks form near the east coast especially near the Cape area they might only see lower 60Fs with NNE wind around 15G26 mph. 50Fs will be realized further inland many areas and even 40Fs further north (if not cooler if the NAM verifies) in the mornings. I'm seeing the official forecasts for afternoon highs on Monday and wondering if they aren't a little too warm, so riding on highs closer to 63F - 67F range many areas north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota line.

TUESDAY: Continued cool as well with overnight lows not really dropping much at all along the east coast south of the Cape (remaining in the lower 60Fs range). Temperatures on Tuesday might not recover all the much from the previous day but chances are it will be a few degrees warmer.

WEDNESDAY: ... On the other hand, recovery will begin full swing to 'warmer and less dry' overnight Tuesday night such that Wednesday morning along the east coast might dawn warmer then sunset the night before will have been.   Highs returning to seasonal norms for several days..but also with increasing coastal stratocumulus clouds decks likely working well inland accompanied by the ever-present potential for a sprinkle or even a " ground wetting short briefed rain"  smattered here or there.

THANKSGIVING: Typical fall like weather with easterly wind, partly to at times cloudy skies and perhaps a sprinkle if not even measurable rain fall in spotty locations but any accumulations  should be less than 1/10th of an inch.

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