"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, November 29, 2010

Cooler Air Mass is on the Way..But in the Meantime

Images: Latest KSC Sounding and radar image as of 6am showing rain along the coast

SYNOPSIS: As noted yesterday, a surface boundary (front) had pushed south of Central Florida but it has now lifted back to the north and now resides well to the north, bisecting the Panhandle. A richer in moisture content, as well as a deeper low level layer of atmospheric condenscing moisture, has taken residence across East Central Florida as a direct result of the boundary passing north and interacting with the 1000 ft boundary alluded to yesterday that had remained in place all day yesterday and into the midnight hour. When the two met up the rains started. As of 7AM my rain bucket has accumulated 0.70" of rain since about 3AM, and it now rains some more as I type.

Please note the KSC sounding shown in this post. It certainly appears it was launched in the rain with total saturation indicated up to nearly 10,000 feet. The radar image shown has looked much like this with minor variations over the entire over night hour. In fact, once the rain started in Cape Canaveral it hardly ever came to a complete and total stop with very very light sprinkles being the prevailing 'modus operandi'.

Elsewhere across the great U.S Expanse, a deep area of low pressure is centered over the Tornado State of Kansas near Topeka with a large area of high pressure to its east extending up and down the Mid Atlantic and SE States' Atlantic Coasts and over the Bahamas. Easterly flow in the low and mid -levels has set camp for the first part of the week until the next approaching weather producing system (not that they all don't produce some form or another of 'weather' so to speak) reaches the Florida Panhandle early Tuesday. This front will cross Central Florida Wednesday morning.

TODAY: With the presence of continued flux of low level moisture on the boot straps of a moderate east to ESE flow, moisture convergence could continue to occur throughout the day, most affecting the immediate coast from near West Palm north to eventually Daytona Beach. We might see a big let up in the rain proximity to the coast for a time from mid-late morning through early afternoon. But then something similar to our early morning rain-showers could once again begin by 2pm and continue into the over night hours and into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will be a little cooler along the coast due to cloud coverage and our onshore wind component, whereas inland and from West Palm South it could be warmer with less clouds and no moisture convergence or suface moisture flux divergence being such a critical factor as they are further north over Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties.

TUESDAY: Similar to today in all ports of call for the most part. Just exactly when it will rain is hard to say...but could be any time. For instance, at this VERY moment it suddenly started to pour pretty hard at 7:52AM. Who woulda thunk it? One look at radar tells the story though.

But it gets tricky. I'll bet now the coastal rainshower activity will end overnigh ronight as surface winds begin to parallel the coast, preventing 'shower landfall' syndrome (SLS). Therefore, the Tuesday sunrise should dawn partly cloudy.

Believe we will see a pre-frontal trough take shape during the day especially with good heating over the land area (the peninsula). As such, the heaviest of rains (of that which will fall somewhere), will be with the prefrontal trough and not the front proper. Might even see a thunderstorm of very isolated nature late Tuesday afternoon, but any threat of wide spread thunderstorms does not appear to be in the cards quite yet, but we'll see. These prefrontal troughs sometimes get a mind of their own it would seem.

WEDNESDAY MORNING:The actual front it now appears will be on the approach across Pad 39A at precisely 7:14:35 and 1 nanoseconds....A.M. Eastern Standard Time. Set your watch.

It will clear the region quickly during the day and be followed by much drier NW winds (flow) and clearing skies.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Very nice with cool morning low temperatures in the low-mid 50s along the coast and afternoons gradually warming, but not by much to near normal highs in the mid-upper 70s after struggling to break 72F Thursday and Friday. The best day for kite boarding appears will be Late Wednesday and Thursday Afternoon. Winds will die down considerably by the weekend. Hard to say which will be the nicer of the two days, Saturday or Sunday; we should all have such conundrums in life, no?

No comments: