(Images: Latest Local Analysis of Fronts/Boundaries, Radar at 9 a.m., water vapor)
Interesting morning unfolding with all sort of boundaries across Central and north Florida. The dominant feature at this time appears to be the low developing off the coast near Jacksonville.
EARLY TODAY: The warm front has essentially passed to the north, with a residual secondary boundary behind it enhancing what little instability there is within the 'warm sector'. This is far from a classic warm front/cold front scenario as dynamics for wind/instability are weak no matter how you look at it. Note that an area on the 9am radar image has been circled. An earlier RUC model run indicated that the nose of some stronger mid-upper level winds would be entering our area in East Central Florida by very late morning...and along the leading edge of these winds some low/mid level lift could be generated. I was expecting some possible enhancement of the shower activity associated with this activity (that was at 4am). The latest run no longer shows those winds..but regardless..something is definitely happening in the anticipated area (Polk/Osceola County mainly). These showers are moving off to the ENE and will be affecting Brevard/Volusia county around 10:00-noon time. Also believe if we're going to hear a rumble of thunder from aloft today at all..it will be associated with that cluster.
NOON-5pm: This period will be characterized by cloudy skies, SSW-SW and eventually west winds in the 8-15mph range. Continued showers across the state mainly south of a line running from Jacksonville, Leesburg to Tampa (or pretty much along I-4)..with clearing from west to east as the day progresses. Thus the area around Ocala, Crystal River, and Tampa will be first to realize the effect of the drier air moving in as noted on the water vapor image I've included. By 5pm the bulk of the clouds and remaining showers will have cleared all of the Central/Northern Peninsula...but not all of the clouds.
5pm-Wednesday: More affirmative clearing of the sky will commence during this time frame as high pressure builds in across Arkansas/Tennesse and extends south across the peninsula. Wednesday morning should dawn nearly clear with light NNW-N winds and a low in the low-mid 50s across the entire central peninsula. We are in a very progressive pattern, and as such, the wind will be quick to veer around to the NE to the ENE by days end. No rain. Maybe a few patches of clouds along the coast by late afternoon but nothing of significance.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: The air mass over the area won't have too hard of a time to recoupe moisture in the low-mid levels as continued long fetch of onshore flow continues. The wind will generally be easterly at 10-15 mph all day with scattered clouds and mild temperatures due to the onshore flow running over 60 degree Atlantic waters.
Thursday Night-Friday: Our next storm system by now will have already started taking shape right along the coast of extreme SE Texas and will be moving ENE across the northern Gulf Of Mexcio. Friday will dawn with partly/cloudy skies due to over-running of jet stream cirrus running out ahead of the system (and associated with the southern branch jet stream). It will be a very mild morning Friday, with a low in the low 60s everywhere. As we go through the day Friday the wind will gradually veer to a more southerly direction under mostly cloudy skies. Despite the clouds...we should still warm into the low-mid 70s along the coast and a notch warmer and inland into the north/central peninsula.
Later Friday-Saturday: Leaving this time frame, as I have for the past couple of posts, for a later time as far as details go. This will be our period of most active weather. As usual, timing/placement of features differences from model run to run, and amongst the models themselves, behooves there to be indepth discussion made. Suffice it say for now, though, that we can expect a good likelihood of rain during this time...possibly in the form of some hefty thunderstorms with good wind gusts being the primary threat (other than the 'given lightning'). As just stated, timing is an issue and will be fundamental in determining just how strong (if they even will be)..the storms could be.
Sunday-Tuesday: Although there is timing descrepancies for the Friday/Saturday period for further elaboration during that period, by Sunday whatever is going to happen will have happened. We'll then be in for a somewhat prolonged cool down. Prolonged relative to what we've had recently as far as cool downs goes. But NOT prolonged like we had the first 10 days or so of January. Nothing remotely close to that. No freezing temperatures...just pretty cold with lows getting into the 40s and barely reaching the mid 60s for a day or two. Plenty of time for indepth discussion in later posts.
For now the focus is on what's going to happen after 10 a.m. this morning to mid-late afternoon..then late Friday through Saturday night.