"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 4, 2016

Chance of Isolated Stronger Storm Mainly Interior South Central - South: No Bacon Lovers

Towering Rain and Thunderstorms over the Banana River and Merritt Island
Sunday sent Down Lightning   within 1 1/2 miles of  beach goers in broad day light
TODAY: Slight chance of a few isolated strong storms mainly South and South Central Portions of the state. 

Conditions are a bit different today from yesterday. Per morning KSC sounding the Covenctive Temperature is 88F with 500mb temps running about 1-2 degrees cooler than past days increasing mid level lapse rates but barely. 700MB was at 10C which is quite warm. Suspect earlier iniation will stabilize those areas prior to sea breeze convergence. Activity most likely to be 'strong' would be from the effective Lake-Sea Breeze boundary mergers (South Florida) where coldest air aloft reside and across parts of Central later in the day when outflow boundaries combine with sea breeze/lake breeze convergences into parts of South Central mainly near to south of I-4.

Greatest threat as usual is dangerous cloud to ground (CG) lightning that occurs outside of (ahead or behind) the main precip cores like as what was occurring yesterday along the beaches of Central/North Brevard county. 

In the image above lightning was occurring within 1- 1 1/2 miles of beach goers while the sun was still blazing. Not a pleasant thought should a random bolt find it's way to unsuspecting sun bathers - someone could have received more than a 'sun burn'. in that situation.

Apart from the lightning threat, chance of strong wind gusts near the heaviest storms especially over the interior of South Florida and later in the day Eastern to Central parts of South Central where it is also cooler aloft but not as cool as over South Florida.

One difference today from yesterday is that the lower levels of the atmosphere yesterday had uniformly S-SSW winds from surface through the next 6000 ft up  the column which was  nearly parallel to the prevailing SSE-SE winds of the sea breeze and a bit stronger than today preventing what could have been better low level convergence to occur along surface boundaries. Those winds might not be quite as strong today, but do no have access to KSC Profiler data this morning to see if that is the case again.   Additionally, the KSC sounding came in late yesterday with a a convective temperature of 95F which might have explained why all the activity diminished so rapidly late day outside of where the best boundary mergers were still occurring. Cannot say if all that will be the case again today.

TUESDAY:  As usual, day by day situation at hand - though it appears tomorrow things will begin to wain both in coverage and intensity as the surface Atlantic ridge axis works to Central Florida with less overall atmospheric moisture to work with coupled with warmer air aloft. This leads to more isolated late day activity over the interior portions of the state as well as more heat from less cloud cover and rain cooled air. Expecting solid July temperatures in the mid 90Fs in many locations away from the modifying  effects of the afternoon sea breezes.

BEYOND: Not much change. if any. foreseen so far for many days to come - too far out in time to bother speculating over at this point.

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