"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Strong Storms Possible Sunday Eastern Portions of North Central

Storm Clouds Over Cape Canaveral - June 22, 2018
TODAY: Another hot day in store, with highs a few degrees above 'normal'. No record highs expected nor have any been set across the state, though many official reporting stations have come to a degree or two of tying a record high the past two days. Granted, 'record highs' this time of year aren't all 'that' much higher than the normal as it is. But 4-6 degrees coupled with Heat Indices (the real story) is nothing to mess with for health related issues , the elderly, and the young alike.

There is an area of higher clouds over the Central/ Eastern Gulf that is attempting to spread eastward early this morning; whether they will wash over the state or not could make all the difference come the 2-5 pm time frame temperature wise. 

If they do wash over, highs might be held at bay - but in general will probably not make much of a difference either way. 

The East Coast might experience a 'sea breeze' today which would make a huge difference to those mainly along or only east of US1  - though looks like from Brevard northward it will be a delayed one (sometime around 3pm or later).

SUNDAY: The GFS has advertised for several days, and just overnight the NAM has come in line,    the risk of thunderstorms mainly along the East Coast from The FL/GA border southward into Volusia county. 

The 4KM NAM has a 'small cluster' of storms making a NNW to SSE trek, but takes it off the southeast Georgia Coast into the Atlantic Ocean rather than down the coast. For now, will discount that solution.

With cold air aloft and moderately high Convective Available instability, coupled with what will be strong low level lapse rates, would watch for 'strong/potential briefly severe' storm or two from near Jax toward Daytona Beach. 

How far south this activity proceeds southward (assuming it even exists) is in question. The area from Cape Canaveral toward Melbourne beach might see cloud cover move in only, or perhaps very light rain (or maybe a bit more) very late in the afternoon into early evening; it's just not possible to know. 

The greater risk will be from Central Volusia northward.

MONDAY: High pressure that has been position too far close overhead (thus, our high temperatures and suppressed atmosphere) will have made it's fullest 'westward retreat' away from the state. This day might be similar to Sunday but with greater coverage though in the same general area as Sunday. 

Will need to re-evaluate Monday during the next two days though, but there is a chance of some stronger storms also only they will be able to manifest further west into the state rather than only along the East Coast and a bit further south as well from however Sunday pans out. 

The GFS is showing a 'cold pool' of surface temperatures late in the day over all of East Central Florida indicating some 'good rains' have fallen; that being from South of I4 to north of Sebastian inlet, including eastern portions of the adjacent interior counties.

TUESDAY: High pressure retreats further west but also north and expands. IF that is the case, we will enter a easterly flow regime favoring the Interior and West coast for storm activity, leaving the east coast 'high and dry'. 

By Monday/Tuesday the unusually warm temperatures will be  over with.

All in all, come Tuesday and beyond indicates a more typical summer type of pattern (of which there are several). 

Earlier indications were that we'd be in for 'all storms in the interior where the sea breezes meet' but that indication went away over night. Perhaps it's too early to make any kind of concrete assertion  in regard to Tuesday and beyond.

 If we do see an onset of more easterly flow, there might also be a day or two here or there when significantly drier air is imported across the state, greatly reducing rain chances more everywhere regardless of where the sea breezes meet, meaning lower rain chances.

In Summary, very warm with dangerous heat indices two more days, chance of storms (some strong) close to the Northeast Quadrant of the state Sunday and Monday, and from Tuesday on..normal temperatures and rain chances (varying in location depending on the synoptic (large scale) set up at hand.

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