"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Chances of storms with strong Gusting Winds Mainly as Noted In More Detail Below
TODAY: It's been 10 days since the last post as all has, for the most part, materialized as supposed. We had our cool down with some record lows set, and now a few record to near record warm morning low temperatures the past mornings or so, but otherwise it's been dry. A cold front approaches though as noted,  and things could change fast today compared to the best week where we were inactive.

Frontal boundary approaching with a few isolated pre-frontal troughs over the Gulf at time, and wondering if perhaps one or more might somehow form over land later. Regardless, the best instability is from near Ormond Beach South to Miami with lower Lifted Condensation levels and deeper overall moisture in that same region. Though I think a Tornado Watch might be issued across the north if there isn't one all ready, they have the wind fields going for them but it will it be enough? Either way, not to discount closer to Central and South Florida. 

The downdraft CAPE is pretty high along the east coast (if the one model I was looking at is correct) so updrafts for storms are going to have to struggle to manifest IF those values are correct, but once any updraft can punch on up the potential for strong and very wet winds does exist with gusts to 'near severe' levels, but only in isolated cases.

Will be watching for the East Coast paralleled winds where some storms might park and pull off a few sly moves especially later today when some boundaries which could interact from earlier shower activity to result in the usual unpredictable 'localized affects' . Further north, high clouds might put further hampers are stronger storms despite that better winds aloft  are up that way aloft. Several tornado warnings and a few reports occurred over the panhandle late yesterday.

TONIGHT WEDNESDAY: Front will ease on in North Central over night and be over Central Florida by daybreak and near a line running from Titusville to Tampa around noon time -3pm time frame. Just exactly how far south it gets will determine where storm chances will exist though at this time today appears to be the day for the stronger storm chances up to this point in time. Rain chance tomorrow through from southern Volusia to North Tampa and south to Miami perhaps as late as afternoon in that northern more area but continuing later further south toward evening   Timing is still in question. After dark though the front should clear all but far South Florida

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Much cooler in the mornings notably on Friday morning with lows running in the 50Fs many areas but toward the low to mid 60Fs east coast with upper 70Fs on Thursday and/or Friday but warming over the weekend. 

Though mornings will continue to be on the cooler side afternoons should be able to get into the low-mid 
80Fs under mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds becoming onshore in the afternoons near the beaches.

IN THE GREAT BEYOND: The GFS has been very consistent in forming a very wet period in about 8-10 days from now. It's shown anything from a strong tropical storm over or near the state to but an inverted trough running across the Yucatan to Florida with a pressure pattern that would induce a stiff onshore wind flow of 35-40mph with heavy rains. Guidance has varied from run to turn with all kinds of interesting results with some to nearly absurd but the real low down is that it is too soon to say which if any scenario will come to fruition. As recalled in a previous post, a near hurricane was also shown to occur in the extended time from which had that been true, we'd be already seeing it in the formative stages preparing to head this way. No surprise though, that is not the case at all. 

Though, with all the rains we had last month and some of this month and high water tables, another big prolonged or shorter heavy rainfall period with winds could still be an issue if the situation does arise. Saturated grounds with strong winds could down some trees with power outages since it's been quite some time since there has been a widespread stronger wind event in the area (October 2011 was the last time such occurred).

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