"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, April 18, 2014

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Late Today into mid-late Evening

Latest Enhanced Water Vapor Image Shows the Upper Level Low
Lagging well to the west of low level features. Instability over the Loop Current
likely responsible for on going activity there since last night (continues) combined with favorable for strong activity veering winds with height
NOW (8AM): A thin line of showers is working up the east coast affecting Southern Brevard County soon to reach Central and north Brevard. This line is thought by some to be a 'warm front' but closer analysis brings cause to wonder if it is not associated more with the leading edge of deepest mid level moisture working north. I'm  hearing thunder now as I type.

Otherwise, gusting on shore winds along the east coast will veer toward the south by mid-afternoon or so. Perhaps some sprinkles off and on, but cloud cover will be the general rule but for far South Florida as anvil blow off from activity (with frequent lightning) over the Eastern Gulf continues, and has been in progress since mid evening last night with little eastward motion if any.

LATE TODAY: A warm front will form across Central Florida, but how far north it progresses could be debated, at least in regard to the surface front. This might be an issue as rain cooled air from direct rainfall or evaporative cooling over North Florida might give it a hard time progressing much further north than I-4 (if even that). Aloft, the warm front will proceed much further north as a wind shift line and some mid level warmer making for poor lapse rates across the far North but where the best wind fields will exist. 

With poor low level lapse rates, suspect a severe threat in that area is only minimal. The better 'chance' for said 'strong to severe' at time appears will be from near I-4 south to the Indian River County and more - so along the East Coast where winds will remain more backed (and enhanced) due to lack of frictional effects of the land mass. So far, best timing would be from after 6pm through around 11pm or so. Much,  as noted yesterday,  will depend on the timing issues.

OTHERWISE: Surface low to remain near the Florida Big Bend and south of or near Alligator Point much of the day and into tonight. In time, the upper level winds will move in, but by that time the lower to mid level winds profiles will no longer be present having lifted off to the North and North east, and suspect at that point any strong storm threat will be out of the picture (per the latest GFS ). Overall, the biggest threat appears would be strong wind gusts from heavier storms (if any) and perhaps a brief spin up tornado, though would still bear watching the local networks or favored form of media (Weather Radio). Suspect some local TV Channels will switch to "live mode' as or if conditions warrant.

WEEKEND: Much depends on how fast the low pressure areas move out. Suspect the GFS is more correct, and if so, lingering moisture on Sunday morning with broken cloud cover is possible ..but if it clears out even more, all the better with a low in the mid-upper 50Fs , closer to 60F. Continued clearing though on that day and seasonable temperatures once we get the sun in unless the low moves out slower (as implied by the NAM). No rains are foreseen from that time on.

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