"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 16, 2012

Wide Spread Convective Showers, Some Thunder Thrown in, Isolated Strong Possible

Graphic shows the mid levels, with two lows in the upper levels. The low over Florida is forecast for this afternoon in the mid levels and should be the primary monitoring area for more robust activity today
TODAY: Pattern continues to morph with our two upper lows slowly working Westward to WNW. A mid level trough will work north to central and north central today and come more aligned with the trough at 20,000-30,000 feet aloft. Weak sea breeze along to east of US1 possible north of West Palm mainly to have any real effects - not, with the mid level cold pool  nearest the low.  Little in low level forcing due to lack of a solid sea breeze collision is a possible downfall, and clouds over the Big Lake of Okeechobee should preclude any meaningful Lake/Sea breeze collision effects given the late time of morning already with no apparent signs of clearing as of yet. Should this region clear by early afternoon, that throws a new wrench into the equation.

For now, any strong storms could be from North Brevard and north toward Flagler County just in from the coast into the interiors, with outflows working south and east and west and every which way. Southwest winds in the mid-levels will steer activity off shore south of West Palm but further north the currents will be too light toward south of DAB (Daytona). There is no steering north of Mims in general and only a drift between that area south to Sebastian by later this afternoon toward the coast. Problem is, activity might get started soon enough that by later today the atmosphere will be worked over which makes further discussion a moot point, but would watch that low pressure area primarily due to some potential vorticity aloft acting as the primary triggering mechanism for actual thunderstorm activity. Winds aloft are very light, so any stronger to even severe storms will be pulse and brief.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: New pattern altogether as the northern upper level low shown east of JAX drifts WNW and gets absorbed into the mainstream synoptic scale flow. Steering SW to NE with greater low level instability means early start to showers and storms almost statewide.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY; Drier air aloft works toward South Florida first then begins to lift north in a  fairly narrow band making late Friday into the Weekend conditional in regard to where storms will exist, with a resumption to more moisture at all levels by Monday (next week) and more SW Flow aloft. In short, typical atmospheric moisture availability will be in play other than late week into the weekend with the atypical diurnal variations typical of outflow west coast sea breeze and lake breeze interactions. Did we just say atypical is typical? ! As usual, some stronger storms are possible on any summer day, so that is not unusual...typically. 
Rough guestimate for starters with red being maybe some stronger activity. Could see some funnel clouds today...there is some gradual clearing toward Ft Pierce, so late day activity could occur in this region. It is left, 'unmarked' due to the abundant unsuitable  at this time situation over far South Central Florida today.

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