Another Chance of Late Day/Early Eve 'Highly Charged" Storms

Storm building south from Seminole County and then working east into Brevard
Shown : Cape Canaveral at 7pm Looking NW

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday other than that moisture availability is not a questionable issue with the KSC 6AM sounding showing a precipitable water (PWAT) value of 2.02" (compared to winter when it can be down around 0.3") . 

Frightened Ghost Crab Eyes Building Clouds to the West 

Low pressure aloft is South of the Keys and is part of the contributor for the increased moisture as the dry air of 2 days ago is now east and out of the equation.  Frontal system in the upper midwest (north plains) can be seen in this image above, and that front might reach at least as far south as I-4 if not 'Dead Central' on Wednesday evening.

This image shows water vapor in the mid-upper levels.
The dark-orange area to the east of Florida
is the drier air from the other day. Upper low west of the Keys

TODAY:  Chance of a few storms that could become big lightning makers mainly along/near the St Johns into the interior Central and toward western parts of South Central. Steering per the KSC morning sounding is 'generally' from the west at 11 mph which is not strong enough to offset any particular random storm that might latch on to the early evening sea breeze and work more toward the south rather than east. Locations even at the beach could at least see some rain mainly north of Vero Beach by early evening. Watch out for the 'right movers' though or ones that work more toward the south along the east coast sea breeze.

NOTATION: Activity for showers (green)/thunder/stronger storms
 will be isolated at any one point in time
but probably most numerous from 5pm -7:30pm .
The area in blue could be extend further south another 50-75 miles.

TOMORROW - SUNDAY: Not a significant enough change in the pattern to be able to discern any daily fluctuations that are inevitable to arise. Overall, today doesn't look a lot different than yesterday other than 1) there is early activity along the west coast near Cedar Key which sometimes is an indicator of a more 'active day' ; and 2) the dry air that was appearing to be moving out at this time yesterday has already cleared the area as noted in the previous image.

Lightning over West Merritt Island as seen from Cape Canaveral

BEYOND: Monday and/or Tuesday we might see some drier air work in that will greatly restrict to completely inhibit storm formation in some certain wide swaths of the state - exactly where appears to be Central, but that could change. Otherwise, frontal boundary will work to I-10 on Tuesday and into North Central to Central on Wednesday. From there, things could get interesting in a different way but exactly how will leave it up to chance; though models do provide for some clues, I wouldn't trust them until we know where the front will end up. Regardless, rain chances remain in the equation for quite a while unless the front works further south than expected. At this point, it could get even  toward South Central but then retrograde back north as broad mid-level low pressure forms in the Northeast Gulf later in the week (next week).

"God Rays" Awaken "The Wheat" at Son Rise