|September 4th, 2012 Storm Scapades - "Horizing Arising"|
Arcus Cloud, Gust Front Formation
TODAY: There is little change from yesterday's pressure pattern for the most part. An upper low off the east coast will lift north to north-northeast today and be located approximately 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral by mid-afternoon. Localize stronger winds aloft flow down its west side from the northeast across north rather than central Florida today, so as a result the best upper level divergence which was over South Florida yesterday will now be over Central Florida. Net result is that there is a minutiae of chance that stronger activity could be seen over Central as opposed to only South Florida as was the case yesterday (for the most part). Area to watch again near Ft Pierce toward the North side of Lake Okeechobee as well as far north possibly as Canaveral. Cold air aloft really never gets much further north than the Melbourne area though. The net result of the better divergence could mean an early start to some showers as the east coast sea breeze begins between the beaches and Cocoa. If this earlier activity does take shape the chance of stronger activity later on might be nil due to stabilization of the atmosphere.
Latest KSC morning sounding shows steering to be stronger than any model guidance indicates, with temperatures aloft cooler than yesterday as well. Thus, strong storms are possible today should nothing change later today from those conditions reflected in the sounding. Steering from the west about 10-14mph toward the east. Small hail also possible with gusts in the 35-48mph range in/near strongest storms.
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FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Weak low pressure area being watched for tropical development . Appears that feature no matter where it ends up or how strong in manages to gather wits (right now, not looking too likely) will have little time to strengthen before a frontal boundary and mid-level trough absorb it going into Sunday. Most guidance so far bring the strung out energy across mostly the North Half of the State, focusing it on Central Florida on Monday. Before that time though, the upper low to the east of the state will finally be released off to the northeast behind LESLIE...which will then allow the front and the old energy pocket from Isaac to swing through as the first cold front of the pre-fall Season. By Monday's night into early Tuesday. This will also mean that the cooler air aloft will move out, so the threat of strong storms could be over after today.
This boundary is expect to clear south to at least Cuba or the Florida Straits followed by moist and brisk ENE winds for a few days, with cloudy periods and possibly some sprinkles. Temperatures in the low-mid 80Fs depending on cloud coverage. The boundary by or toward the following weekend could lift back north, or 'buckle back' ahead of another tropical disturbance from the South Central Atlantic which does not yet exist, per se. This would bring another shot of rainy weather toward the 15th or so of September with easterlies continuing . Thus, after this front clears out, the Wet Thunderstorm Season Door is Slammed shut for 2012 (not to say, thunder still cannot happen, nor that it still cannot be 'wet'). Referring only to the blanket "Typical Florida Thunderstorm" season as one might imagine it to be.