"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, April 15, 2016

Chance of Strong /Iso-Severe Mainly South Central - South Later Today

Storm Tops Over Fellsmere Yesterday as Viewed From Cape Canaveral -
Storm Produced Severe Sized Hail of 1"  

TODAY: Colder than usual air aloft once again in place with sufficient bulk shear in the upper levels as anticipated. On the other hand, a bit more cloud cover is in place and surface based instability unlikely to be quite as strong as anticipated it would be today from yesterday. Atmosphere is not 'over moist' but moist enough to provide the impetus for isolated strong to severe storms. 

A few 'playing it as it goes' factors might be at hand even now. Showers/small storms well off the coast of the Cape appear to have set off an outflow boundary working east-west very close to Canaveral...where another east-west boundary appears off the west coast at nearly the same latitude. If these two boundaries 'outline' a secondary 'frontal boundary' it is too early in the day to say for certain but a line running from near Canaveral to MCO south and west into Polk County appears to be the northern most extent of any 'stronger' activity today, mainly inland if this is a faux-boundary emanating from yesterday's departing system. Several reports came in with severe sized hail, mainly in Polk County but also one in Indian River County

Further south is at time where the stronger storms seem most likely. Mainly Southern Osceola, Indian River, Okeechobee, Martin, St. Lucie, and Northern Palm Beach County.  

Again, the boundary which appears might come into play later today runs from near Canaveral to Tampa; on the other-hand, most guidance implies it might sink south toward a Sebastian to Sarasota line later in the day, so will be interesting to see how things evolve late in the afternoon through early-mid evening in that area if in nothing more than the rainfall category.  

SATURDAY; Rain chances continue on Saturday.  Otherwise, cloudier sky conditions on Saturday with mainly showers except some isolated thunder mainly just off shore South Central and South, but no matter where, coverage of 'thunder' looks much lower tomorrow, even over South Central/South (wherever that might end up occurring).

Otherwise from later Saturday through around Wednesday breezier on shore flow until around Thursday and especially Friday. So far late week into next weekend indicates we might see once again an up-tick in storm chances with some strong but too soon to say with any certainty.

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