"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, June 17, 2016

Strong Storm Wind Gusts / Frequent Lightning Possible This Afternoon

Cape Canaveral Great Blue Heron  at Sunrise

TODAY: Upper level disturbance over North Florida analyzed by all model guidance is showing to drop south and east into Central Florida where it will mostly remain the rest of the day.

Morning KSC sounding shows the long anticipated 'colder air aloft' heralded to come several days (blogs) ago has arrived with 700mb temperatures running about 2 - 2 1/2C colder than yesterday and 500mb at 20,000 feet about 3 degrees colder than has been for quite some time. Cold air aloft, coupled with sufficient day time heating (mostly south of line running from near Mims - North Side of Tampa Bay) should make for better low level lapse rates as well.  Like yesterday there will not be  an east coast sea-breeze  which means the normal 'summer storm regime' will not be the case for today atmospheric festivities. Moisture depth has increased and Lifted Condensation Level's are already running rather low which makes for an easy  initiation with a convective temperature on the sounding of 90F for cumulus clouds and/or even a quick passing rain shower.  

Though the majority of 'rain causing coverage' will be of the shower variety, thunderstorms will indeed form today (or should at least) ..and with winds not far above the deck near 30 knts..could get rather 'breezy' to very gusty near heavier rain showers (even if one avoids the actual rain altogether). Chance of some potent lightning strikes , like yesterday, will also complete the package.
Winds could gust to 50-plus by some heavier activity around mid-afternoon or so toward parts of South Central as it now appears.

Rainfall might end a bit earlier today than it did in some locations other than down toward South Florida but cloudy skies would remain.

Strong storms will also be possible toward the Panhandle and/or JAX area late day or early evening

SATURDAY: Another and the last of short wave  disturbances moves down the state slowly . Tomorrow looks like a variation of today but guidance is showing better storm chances with both a low and mid-level trough axis aiding in convergence to be in place. Strong storms again possible this day with a marginal severe risk in the cards (though that is not per 'official outlets' namely The Storm Prediction Center) but will watch to see if the hedge their bets and up the ante from 'General Thunderstorms" in later forecasts.

BEYOND: COLD FRONT (gasp !) to move through all the state by Sunday's end ..but will clear all of Central by Sunday afternoon.  After perhaps some showers earelir (Central) easterly to ENE surface winds to increase and dry out the atmosphere for all but parts of South Central and South. Behind this arctic plummet of boundaries temperatures will recoil down toward seasonal norms overall, but morning lows will remain up at the coast with east winds coming off of low 80F ocean water temperatures.

 LATE SUNDAY - TUESDAY; These days for Central Florida look to be the days of the least likely chance of it raining at all. Breezy perhaps a bit late Sunday and/or Monday near the East Coast and on the beaches but tapering off into Tuesday and become 'seasonal' in direction in strength going into Wednesday.

EXTENDED: GFS  (and word has it) other Models are coming into a general agreement of the chances of  increasing rain/thunderstorm activity initially in the interior on Wednesday and Thursday but if the cards fall right (or wrong) rain chances might increase significantly for almost anywhere come next weekend and well into the following week for a variety of reasons. The last run of the GFS implied a 'tropical connection' from the Western Caribbean could add some boast to the the moisture levels in the atmosphere with a southerly flow regime, but that is too far out in time to cater to as of  now but worth watching.

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