"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, October 26, 2012

Sandy Storms Offshore , Not So Grand-ular Rains Today

Hurricane Center's Forecast track per model consensus and short
range guidance matches nicely so far today. In Blue and Black is where greatest wind and rain impacts at this time appear will occur
. Hard to see, Coastal Central.

TODAY: As of 1:45pm it appears Sandy will storm east of the state a good distance offshore. Earlier this morning the storm was 270 ESE of Cape Canaveral when Patrick AFB popped a gust of 53mph in a rain shower. By now, the storm is about as close to the coast as it will get, although some expansion of the wind field could occur per 'some' model guidance and as noted toward the 20-30 percent chance of sustained storm force winds (above) along the coast of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River counties mainly. Rains are not widespread per radar, and little change in the overall gist of things is expected other than for the potential of a slight up tick in winds especially toward or after the 4PM time frame through midnight. It is clear that winds just above the ground are not mixing down to the surface whatsoever other than in the rain showers which are few and far between other than in the renegade 'bands' time coming in mainly as shown.

Combining the forecast wind
and rain-fields yields off and on
tropical storm conditions in rain storms
for brief periods, with a possible increase in the late afternoon through midnight, although not all guidance illustrates a wet picture at all...beyond early evening.
For this post, the RAP short term guidance is shown as it seems to depict better what has already and is occurring. This can be seen in the next illustration which kaleidoscopes vibrantly the expected rainfall totals for this entire 'event' which at worst will be 'entired' as it appears now by mid-morning Saturday if not well before sunrise.

To the left is the rainfall totals showing less than an inch which locally at the man-cave and putty kat shelter (which at this moment is the lap) is already nearly that much.  Whether those totals occur  early, spread out over a period of time, or ever is another matter. It is the totals we are discussing here and not necessarily when or how long of a period upon which the rain will fall that is the crux of the matter.

But what next we haven't asked? 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Gradual drying out with NW winds decreasing and mild temperatures with lows in the mid- upper 60Fs and highs in the low 80Fs or upper 70Fs for the most part, Clear or nearly so beyond.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: NW winds most of the time, or at least early in the period as a frontal boundary is drawn south and east down the western flank of the storm's supporting upper level trough, while Sandy , per se..some calling it "Frankenstorm"....could say, "Oh My Godzilla"!

This front will herald in drier yet air, and very very cool morning temperatures in the upper 40Fs inland and north of Central, but 50Fs across the low to upper ranges are entirely possible most everywhere, including the coast. 

The clincher at this point is will the immediate coast get below 50F? If so, Tuesday and Wednesday might be the days. Afternoons though will be quite quite pleasant with light winds, clear skies, and quickly falling temperatures near dusk. Daylight Savings Time will be ending as well next Sunday.

A change in this overall trend is not foreseen until going into Friday and through next weekend. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction although not always realized, and such could be the case this go around as we approach Election Day. Appears this time we will realize it..and there might be yet another re-action heading toward "That Day" in the opposite direction toward a walk on the wet side once again. So far, pseudo to non-tropical in nature.

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