"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Much Cooler Through Sunday - Cloudier Later

Before the Weekend ~ Friday Morning
TODAY: Long heralded cold front finally cleared and in came the cooler air on brisk northwest winds after midnight. Though it is mostly sunny in many locations mid-morning, there appears a fairly good chacne increasing high clouds will aid in keeping temperatures down along with the cold air advective process already in place with highs limited to the lower-mid 60Fs many areas but warmer to the south end of the state.

Satellite animation shows increasing high cirrus clouds approaching from the SW toward Noon time
(South Florida already under denser cloud cover) 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY: Clouds should be exiting out all areas prior to midnight tonight and Sunday looks much more pleasant with somewhat 'quieter wind' more from the North to North North east. The latest GFS shows a little bit of a 'cool wedge' working south along the Northern Coast into the Cape toward Cocoa Beach, making it cooler tomorrow in that area near the coast than today. Will be interesting to see how that plays out but suspect it might be over-doing it south of the Cape where ocean nearshore water temperatures have been running in the lower 70Fs for quite a while which we should be albe to expect at least that much out of the day in that location. Otherwise, sunny.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Chance of some increasing high clouds once again with very cool mornings as wind shifts to a more westerly component. Several areas of high pressure are forecast to rotate from the gulf and across Florida at the mid-levels in the next week which will keep fronts out of the picture other than a backdoor front to go by very early Tuesday with another later in the period. This will have little affect locally except on the wind direction and to aid in keeping down the temperatures just a bit but very close to 'normal' regardless in lieu of the much above normal we've been experiencing for over the past 12 days. Mornings will continue to be very cool with mid-upper 50Fs abundant to lower 60Fs some areas especially very near the beaches. Light winds though and pleasant afternoons.

WEDNESDAY-BEYOND: So far several very warm days are shown with almost no chance of rain.


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Friday, March 27, 2015

Chance of Higher Rain Coverage Today with Gusting Winds Possible In and Near Showers or Storms

Every Cumulus Cloud and Bougainvillea  has a Silver Lining 
TODAY: "Pre-frontal like 'trough has sliced through Central Florida well before sunrise with rain showers on its wings as it presses south. Meanwhile, the actual cold front is now across the Western Panhandle ; timing places it close to a Cape Canaveral to Sarasota line around 8 pm tonight.

Meanwhile, all guidance shows appreciable 'air mass recovery' during the morning and into the mid afternoon hours in regard to atmospheric low level destabilization in the presence of increasing wind shear and cold air aloft. 

The area to watch will be mostly near the boundary of the front but a secondary area could emerge across East Central during peak heating hours if the guidance is correct. The idea for some stronger storms is for mainly wind gusts which could be stronger in even only a heavy rain shower which seems to be the more common mode of conditions that will emerge today. 

The latest full run of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is showing only maybe 5 storms in the below graphic areal coverage range capable of producing anything more than a flash of lighting or two other than one near Tampa Bay earlier in the day (as an example at this point in time, only). At least lightning that would be cloud to ground.

The below image is mostly taking into the account of the potential perhaps of prefrontal activity to generate across Central due to that it will have more time to recover from this early day activity though another area further north to watch for is also possible along the east coast toward Ormond Beach. Further south the front will be too far away during peak heating is the reason for leaving it out of the 'stronger storm suggestion'.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Not much change otherwise from previous post. Lows Saturday through Monday morning in the upper 40F's to lower 50F's mainly along and north of I-4 with more common mid to upper 50Fs  more widespread (except warmer South Florida). Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 60F's.

Sunrise at the Cocoa Beach Pier

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Continued very cool in the mornings especially away from the immediate beaches. The high pressure area following the front is expected to settle south to directly across Central Florida by Monday then move off to the east the rest of the week. Very light winds with good radiational cooling at this time of year alone would make it cool in the morning but warming rapidly within the first few hours after sunrise. Highs in the mid-upper 70F's, with the coast these mornings ( along A1A) the warmer in the mornings, but most everyone will still be waking up (if earlier) to 50Fs readings.

WEDNESDAY: Warmer to normal or above through Saturday. Next front is slated for the Saturday time frame.

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Thursday, March 26, 2015

Have Umbrealla Handy This Afternoon-Early Evening; Rain Also Possible Friday

TODAY: Cold front still over 24 hours away. As of noon the air mass is not conducive for storms let along barely a rain shower over Central but air mass modification theoretically is in progress as we write (or read) going into mid afternoon to early evening. SSW wind most of the day with perhaps a small side shore component right at the coast near the Cape after 3pm. Increasing chances of showers and possible thunder late as West Coast sea breeze component slide across the state to the east coast later this afternoon. Instability is not overly dramatic but temperatures aloft are cooling.
The best chance of thunder appears to be East Central with Southeast sectors having a slightly less of a chance.

Cover of Thunder Might be Rather Low but Rain Shower Coverage Might Be Notable
Especially East Central (East of Orlando) later in the Day
FRIDAY: Cold front to move into Central Early Afternoon and to lie somewhere near a Titusville to Port Charlotte Line around 6-8pm as it moves on south. Increasing Cloud coverage especially by noon time with spotty rain showers prior to the immediacy of the near front's approach with increasing rain chances going into the afternoon as it approaches. 

Though winds aloft will be increasing with bulk shear and temperatures too will be cold there which would favor strong storms, suspect the majority of the rain fall will not be in the form of thunder though it's always possible due to lack of instability and the unidirectional nature of the vertical component of the wind fields. The bigger story will be the post-frontal weather for Saturday through Mid-Week next week.

WEEKEND WEATHER: Breezy on Saturday and quite cool with a high in the lower-mid 60Fs though the NAM has it much warmer and lows in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs both days.

Wind to let up a bit on Sunday, but overall Saturday seems to be 'the worst' of the two days with the cool air and windier conditions in place.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Continue cool in the mornings with afternoon climbing toward normal range (as opposed to the above normal we've been experiencing). Still looks liek a back door front will move in Tuesday but it's affects might be close to minimal if even noticeable to the outside observer.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Winter to Rear it's Ugly Sneer This Weekend - Possible Thursday Thunder

Feral Cats Enjoying an Early Morning Spring Stroll along the Old Beaten Path
TODAY-TONIGHT: Cool temperatures to prevail but air mass modification to   warmer with higher  "ew points" and overall increasing atmospheric moisture is awaiting a return northward toward sunrise into tomorrow afternoon as winds become east to south east and eventually south to south south west by mid morning Thursday. The latest "North American NAM (Model)" shows just enough instability that thunder could conceivably occur as temperatures aloft take a lofty drop going into the late morning hours tomorrow and as winds in that same upper region increase ahead of an approaching cold front.

"Royal Mansions"

THURSDAY: Chance of morning showers but more likely after noon time into mid-afternoon and early evening as a surge of moisture from the northern Tropics lifts from South Florida into Central during the day accompanied by stronger winds and cold air aloft that will be moving in coincident. Chances are for now it will be mostly rain showers with increasing cloud cover but thunder cannot be ruled out. The cold front will be moving in on North Florida with a chance of thunder and rain there as well but for a different reason than further south toward Central/South Florida.


SIDE NOTE: The Other Night (Monday): East Central toward Canaveral received 1" of rain in about 15 minutes (at least in my  rain gauge)  as this isolated shower (isolated as in the only one of two in the state moved across) 

FRIDAY- SATURDAY:  Cold front to slide south down the Peninsula during the day. Increased cloud cover with mainly rain showers to a large expanse of rain with maybe some embedded thunder from late morning (north) toward Central by early afternoon through sunset. Clearing well after dark some time.

Heads up: Return to winter 'like temperatures' for 48 hours this entire weekend with only slow warming into mid-week. 

Cold front to cross Central Florida sometime 'during to just after' sunset Friday give or take an hour or so followed but a notable drop in temperatures after midnight. Low Saturday morning could be in the mid--upper 40Fs north side of Orlando and Lake County to Western Volusia with upper 40Fs through the lower to mid 50Fs further south but warmer still all of South Central and South Florida. It's been quite a while since we've had such a big cool down after prolonged above normal temperatures, the shock value index will be the factor.  Highs  in the lower-mid 60Fs Saturday and breezy.

SUNDAY: Another very cool to almost 'cold start' to the day relative to where we've been for the past 2 or more weeks now with lows similar to the previous morning. Wind will be less so won't fee as cold as it will on Saturday where winds are expected to remain elevated all day.

Spring Sprang but will Retreat For A Few Days
MONDAY: At this point, Monday looks like a near Chamber of Commerce Day as high pressure will be centered almost directly over head. Near Calm but very cool morning will warm rapidly into the lower-mid 70Fs.

TUESDAY: Yet another very cool start to the day but warming more as the high pressure shifts slowly shifts east. Watching to see if a back door cold front passes down though to keep temperatures cool yet longer.

BEYOND: Slow warm up more notable Wednesday and Thursday but not as much as would be hoped. A back door cold front might got through around Tuesday which will suppress what would be a much more rapid warm up. otherwise.

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Monday, March 23, 2015

Much Cooler Sunday and Monday, Rain with some Desolate Storm Activity Today

Warm Weather To be Taking Off For A Time Late Week

TODAY: As suspected might occur, rain-showers and increasing cloud cover already in progress before sunrise. Infrared Satellite animation shows a large canopy of cloud cover associated with mainly rain-showers spreading across the north half of the state as of 530AM with rains underneath as shown in the next image. With the given conditions and no sign of improving sky conditions, expect cooler temperatures today mainly in the 70Fs to perhaps some lower 80Fs (warmer Southern portions). There could still be some thunder and maybe even a stronger storm or two, but very isolated if at all.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Wind will be a bit northeasterly but light tomorrow as boundary appears will make to the Lake Okeechobee area and then lift back north going into Wednesday. Warmer on Wednesday and Thursday with a slight chance of a shower but too low to get to specifics in regard to location and timing at this point.

FRIDAY: First true cold front in quite some time now to move through in the late Friday through early Saturday time frame, but will have to wait to narrow down on specifics given how far out in time the passage is from now. It might end up between up to 24 hours later for all we know at this point. Better chance of rain though associated with the boundary and possibly thunderstorms as well.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Sometime within this time frame is shown a significant cool down from the past 10 days or so that we've been experiencing, albeit temperatures have been running well above seasonal norms for quite some time. 

Latest GFS is showing some mid-upper 40Fs into Central with afternoons in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. This might be overkill though given the higher sun angle; regardless, much cooler weather is in store come at least later in the weekend into early next week, without a significant but only gradual warm up heading into mid week, next week. Nothing unbearable though, and rather short in duration as would be expected (at least).

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Sunday, March 22, 2015

'Marginal' Strong/Severe Storm Chance Monday Continues ...

"On the Lookout for Possible Storms Monday Afternoon - Early Evening"
TODAY: Some thin high clouds off and on might hold down high afternoon temperatures a bit, but mid -upper 80Fs still possible except near the east coast where the sea breeze has set in. Little to no chance of rain most locations though perhaps there could be some very small quick showers near the larger cloud breaks that persist much later today. Already some heavier showers occurring over the panhandle. Better chance for a shower would be east Central near I-95  US 1 as far south as the Ft Pierce area.

MONDAY: Little change in the overall synoptic scale pattern forecast going into Monday. Weak surface low over the Panhandle Gulf coast works south and east with a boundary toward Central Florida during the mid-afternoon and looses identity over East Central Florida by evening. Marginal instability at the surface and weak surface winds down play a potentially more 'rambunctious' set up for more wide spread convection (thunderstorms) with the strong 100+ knot left exit region collocated over east Central during 'prime time'  with  guidance  showing some spotty stronger upper vertical velocities over NE Florida primarily in the afternoon with a few shots across east central. 

All in all though,  any storms that would be strong or severe would be very isolated as shown by the morning NAM model simulated radar forecast and rather spotty GFS 'impression' , but those that can get going, especially if greater instability can be realized, could quickly go severe especially after 3 pm toward the east coast and earlier at spots toward the west coast and north of I4. A sample idea of the coverage for where any said storm could occur might look like this. 

There is a chance that an earlier round of showers could greatly stabilize the atmosphere across central Florida prior to noon time which would for the most part put the squash on stronger late day activity despite some of the otherwise favorable factors that will be in place for strong storms. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Frontal boundary is to wash out over Central Florida with temperatures overall appearing to be in the average range for this time of year, to just above.  These two days appear also to be the best chance of remaining dry though there is hardly a single day where guidance is not showing at least a shower here or there somewhere across Central.

Sunday Morning Bloom
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Now watching this time frame for another chance of showers to even storms in the Friday / Saturday time frame. Guidance is doing horrible on being consistent on the next frontal passage timing wise but continues to show a significant cool down heading toward either later Saturday or Sunday -- at this stage would not hedge any bets though. Overall, after Monday the rest of the week outside of any of those remote shower chances won't reveal much of anything different that what you've experienced at your location the past several days until later in the week. 

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Saturday, March 21, 2015

Strong - Severe Storms 'Might Be Possible' Monday North Half of State

Happy Blooms on the First Spring Morning of 2015

SUNDAY: Subtle changes at first in store Saturday Night (tonight) through Sunday as broad low pressure moves in across the Deep South States with two low pressure areas to form : one off the coast of North Georgia to South Carolina and the other near the Florida Panhandle at the low levels all within a much broader low pressure area with a 'cold front' joining these two lows.

The more southern low is forecast to weaken and drift East South East into Central Florida by mid-afternoon on Monday.

Sunday will see more westerly type winds most of the day (as opposed to today),  inhibiting the sea breeze but for along the immediate coast south of I-4 in general. Sunday looks much like last Sunday was in general with warmest temperatures west of the Banana River (more so west of US 1). A sea breeze convergence boundary should set up late in the day near I-95 but at this point storms are not expected though some showers might form from Brevard County and north close to the coast late in the day (or perhaps merely an increase in cloud cover only later in the day).

The 90th "Anniversary" of the Infamous Tri-State Tornado Was Recognized Earlier This Week

MONDAY: This is the big day in question. GFS Guidance (Global Forecast System) shows a chance  of mainly showers with perhaps thunder for the North Half of the State whereas the NAM (North American Model) indicates much greater low level instability and as a result, a greater storm chance. 

In both cases, the left exit  region of a 120 kt jet streak will be crossing across the North Half of the state during 'prime time' with very cold air aloft. Down play would be lack of low level convergence along the frontal boundary as winds are mainly parallel to the front but there is some turning going on in the mid-levels (though weak). Given the factors involved would watch for some strong storms though another down play might be antecedent cloud cover which would leave the atmosphere more stable and greatly reduce any strong/severe threat despite the presence of very strong winds and cold air aloft.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Cooler weather for a day or so most notably in the mornings, but overall a day or two of normal readings for this time of year with a return to above temperatures mid-late week. (Lately, the temperatures have been much above normal for this time of year.)

GREATER BEYOND: The GFS is introducing another strong storm chance next Monday - March 30th, but again, that is a new client on the TBD list for monitoring purposes only at this stage -  chances are that it will 'go away' with later model runs.

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Friday, March 20, 2015

First Sunset of The (Spring) Vernal Equinox Tonight (6:45 PM EDT), Chance of Showers

"Bursting At the Seams for Spring "
TODAY - WEEKEND: Only minor variations each day in the current pattern. Late afternoon sea breeze convergence showers are possibly somewhere mainly from east of Orlando to West of US 1 though with west to east steering some might make it to off the coast late (especially if they can hold on after or toward dark). At this time of year with the ocean temperature as of this morning running from around 71-73F, the sea breeze often 'chokes off' whatever showers can form; thunder is not expected nor is there to be a very big coverage of showers (if any) . 

SPRING BEGINS tonight at 6:45 PM EDT with sunset close by - 7:34 PM.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: As noted, only minor variations on the running theme continues as late day 'heat lows' form over the interior peninsula with models at some points showing those to move off with a re-emergence of one to form the next day. The only real consequence of this would be some showers if ample moisture is available. Temperatures have been running between  5 - 15 F degrees ABOVE normal for a week now and the trend continues into next week. 

Noting that:  Mostly hose location over the eastern most barrier islands (along A1A are feeling those huge temperature variations in the afternoons where they are running well above 'normal' from time to time. The east coast sea breeze or even proximity of the ocean is making for slightly warmer mornings at the beaches but much cooler afternoons with the cool ocean breeze toning it down by at least 5-8F degrees from inland. 

MONDAY: This day shows (so far) the best chance for rain, with thunder possible (will watch to see if they might be strong). In the longer range the GFS has continually in the 9-12 day frame been showing a significant cool down in weather, but that keeps going by the wayside within 4-5 days of those time frames. This has been the trend for over a week; the models are willing but the reality is weak. And as of the morning run next weekend might even feel a bit OVERLY cool with 50S -60Fs rough the clock which would be a bit of a shocker after all the warmer weather of late. We'll see.

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