TODAY: Cold front still over 24 hours away. As of noon the air mass is not conducive for storms let along barely a rain shower over Central but air mass modification theoretically is in progress as we write (or read) going into mid afternoon to early evening. SSW wind most of the day with perhaps a small side shore component right at the coast near the Cape after 3pm. Increasing chances of showers and possible thunder late as West Coast sea breeze component slide across the state to the east coast later this afternoon. Instability is not overly dramatic but temperatures aloft are cooling.
The best chance of thunder appears to be East Central with Southeast sectors having a slightly less of a chance.
|Cover of Thunder Might be Rather Low but Rain Shower Coverage Might Be Notable |
Especially East Central (East of Orlando) later in the Day
Though winds aloft will be increasing with bulk shear and temperatures too will be cold there which would favor strong storms, suspect the majority of the rain fall will not be in the form of thunder though it's always possible due to lack of instability and the unidirectional nature of the vertical component of the wind fields. The bigger story will be the post-frontal weather for Saturday through Mid-Week next week.
WEEKEND WEATHER: Breezy on Saturday and quite cool with a high in the lower-mid 60Fs though the NAM has it much warmer and lows in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs both days.
Wind to let up a bit on Sunday, but overall Saturday seems to be 'the worst' of the two days with the cool air and windier conditions in place.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: Continue cool in the mornings with afternoon climbing toward normal range (as opposed to the above normal we've been experiencing). Still looks liek a back door front will move in Tuesday but it's affects might be close to minimal if even noticeable to the outside observer.