"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, April 25, 2011

Possible l Thunder West Side, Perhaps Isolated Interior Late Afternoon

Visible Satellite Image at 12:35pm EDT shows cumulus fields forming across the state.
Early - late morning rain showers have moved on shore Martin/St. Lucie/Indian River /and parts of Brevard County.
In this image it is noticed that no sea breeze boundaries have yet to form under the prevalent SE-ESE low level flow by the lack of 'clearing' along the coasts behind these boundaries once they form.However, there are some glitches to today's discussion to point out....

TODAY: There is no doubt the today the weather over the peninsula is being dictated by low level and to some degree mid-level flow/wind from the ESE-SE, becoming more predominately SE-SSE by sunset.  However, in the mid-upper portions of the atmosphere above 10,000ft the winds come to near calm under a 500mb ridge axis shown in the image below late today. There is some cold air in the mid-upper levels today, which most likely could induce the highest concentration of stronger storms on the west side of the state once again late this afternoon until dark under the assumption the west coast sea breeze forms and works against the prevalent easterly surface winds, otherwise noted. These storms will be very close to the coast today.
This image isn't as complicated as it may look. The black box shows where the best chance of thunderstorm activity will exists today, with the red areas (same as yesterday) highlighted.

 The area near Brooksville looks to hold a better potential today. The blue line is the approximate position of the cold 500mb trough axis late this afternoon. The latest RUC model dared to show a tiny circle over Western Orange County late today to denote the center of a closed circulation there. Not really feasible, but the point is winds way up there today will be near calm/temperatures cold.

By early evening winds become more SSE-S over the interior and a secondary area shower/storms could from west of the purple line to the blue line..most likely over Central Osceola County into Orlando, after 4:30-8pm time frame.
 MEANWHILE AT THE COAST: Things look to be quiet at the coast today with brisk SE - SSE winds late toward early evening, especially once the sea breeze settles in and skies clear for a time until near/after sunset.

TONIGHT: The little circulation of Invest 91L is STILL VISIBLE on satellite imagery about to cross into the SW Bahamas Islands south of Grand.  Believe it will get caught up somewhere east of the Gulf stream..or split with one portion running toward the Keys with another portion to run up to the west side of the Gulf Stream overnight tonight.  There is a chance that the immediate coast from Fort Pierce to Titusville/Oakhill could see rain showers tonight accompanied by strong wind gusts with the cold air still aloft at the coast (as the 500mb axis drawn in blue above starts to pivot out of the state).  This would be after midnight to near sunrise if this occurs.  Interesting from this writer's perspective that the GFS favors the Cape area with the flow in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and highest land bound PWAT (precipitable water) values only passing over the Cape Extension but otherwise remaining all off shore. Fat chance, but will be interesting to see what comes out of it. Best bet is that any over night activity will latch on to the Gulf Stream, but overnight hours seem to have a mind of their own at the coast and don't always obey the rules.

TUESDAY: There is some agreement that conditions would favor the East Side of the state for showers and storms; however, this area, despite having the most available moisture and instability  might also be capped by warm air aloft...resulting in showers further to the west with nothing to show for it over the otherwise more favored area for showers or a thunderstorm or two on the East Side. 3 more model runs to resolve the discrepancy. Those West Side 'Boyz' have had their fun.

WEDNESDAY: All models agree that for the most part it will be warm and breezy under a capped environment. The GFS is hinting that showers could go up over far South to South Central Florida late in the afternoon that will form during a transition period as a cold front approaches. I love transition periods so I'm starting to hedge in this notion. Showers would be picked up by the now developing SSW to NNE Flow aloft and be carried off the East Central Florida coast by early evening from the Southern Interior.

THURSDAY: Front to approach with the best chance of strong/severe storms over NW-:Panhandle of Florida toward Jacksonville. Hot up and down the spine of the state with highs in the low-near mid 90Fs. 

Front is forecast to enter Central between the hours of 2pm -8pm.  Interesting evolution in the GFS for several runs for some sort of 5-6pm convective magic along the coast of East Central Florida from near Volusia south to Central Brevard County at different times as the boundary pushes in. 

Most interestingly, the latest GFS has come out with a prefontal boundary to form over East Central Florida as the front itself is much further to the north during the mid-afternoon with a little 500mb cold pool result is a good storm(s) to move off the coast of Brevard sometime after 4-5pm as well as  one off Volusia

THURSDAY NIGHT: The front is forecast to wash out over Brevard County then drop into South Florida Friday with virtually all of the dynamics associated with it long gone.  Moisture having pooled ahead of it could still generate some showers and thunder though over far South Florida/Keys at almost anytime on Friday as winds become NE-ENE during the day.

WEEKEND: So far so good for rain freed-ness, although some showers and possible thunder could occur near the Keys on into Saturday.  Moisture returns north to Central by late Monday.

No comments: