TODAY: There is no doubt the today the weather over the peninsula is being dictated by low level and to some degree mid-level flow/wind from the ESE-SE, becoming more predominately SE-SSE by sunset. However, in the mid-upper portions of the atmosphere above 10,000ft the winds come to near calm under a 500mb ridge axis shown in the image below late today. There is some cold air in the mid-upper levels today, which most likely could induce the highest concentration of stronger storms on the west side of the state once again late this afternoon until dark under the assumption the west coast sea breeze forms and works against the prevalent easterly surface winds, otherwise noted. These storms will be very close to the coast today.
MEANWHILE AT THE COAST: Things look to be quiet at the coast today with brisk SE - SSE winds late toward early evening, especially once the sea breeze settles in and skies clear for a time until near/after sunset.
TONIGHT: The little circulation of Invest 91L is STILL VISIBLE on satellite imagery about to cross into the SW Bahamas Islands south of Grand. Believe it will get caught up somewhere east of the Gulf stream..or split with one portion running toward the Keys with another portion to run up to the west side of the Gulf Stream overnight tonight. There is a chance that the immediate coast from Fort Pierce to Titusville/Oakhill could see rain showers tonight accompanied by strong wind gusts with the cold air still aloft at the coast (as the 500mb axis drawn in blue above starts to pivot out of the state). This would be after midnight to near sunrise if this occurs. Interesting from this writer's perspective that the GFS favors the Cape area with the flow in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and highest land bound PWAT (precipitable water) values only passing over the Cape Extension but otherwise remaining all off shore. Fat chance, but will be interesting to see what comes out of it. Best bet is that any over night activity will latch on to the Gulf Stream, but overnight hours seem to have a mind of their own at the coast and don't always obey the rules.
TUESDAY: There is some agreement that conditions would favor the East Side of the state for showers and storms; however, this area, despite having the most available moisture and instability might also be capped by warm air aloft...resulting in showers further to the west with nothing to show for it over the otherwise more favored area for showers or a thunderstorm or two on the East Side. 3 more model runs to resolve the discrepancy. Those West Side 'Boyz' have had their fun.
WEDNESDAY: All models agree that for the most part it will be warm and breezy under a capped environment. The GFS is hinting that showers could go up over far South to South Central Florida late in the afternoon that will form during a transition period as a cold front approaches. I love transition periods so I'm starting to hedge in this notion. Showers would be picked up by the now developing SSW to NNE Flow aloft and be carried off the East Central Florida coast by early evening from the Southern Interior.
THURSDAY: Front to approach with the best chance of strong/severe storms over NW-:Panhandle of Florida toward Jacksonville. Hot up and down the spine of the state with highs in the low-near mid 90Fs.
Front is forecast to enter Central between the hours of 2pm -8pm. Interesting evolution in the GFS for several runs for some sort of 5-6pm convective magic along the coast of East Central Florida from near Volusia south to Central Brevard County at different times as the boundary pushes in.
Most interestingly, the latest GFS has come out with a prefontal boundary to form over East Central Florida as the front itself is much further to the north during the mid-afternoon with a little 500mb cold pool aloft...net result is a good storm(s) to move off the coast of Brevard sometime after 4-5pm as well as one off Volusia
THURSDAY NIGHT: The front is forecast to wash out over Brevard County then drop into South Florida Friday with virtually all of the dynamics associated with it long gone. Moisture having pooled ahead of it could still generate some showers and thunder though over far South Florida/Keys at almost anytime on Friday as winds become NE-ENE during the day.
WEEKEND: So far so good for rain freed-ness, although some showers and possible thunder could occur near the Keys on into Saturday. Moisture returns north to Central by late Monday.