"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Widespread Heat, Isolated Storms Late

(Image from the Regional Climate Center and Florida Today newspaper and shows the driest region in the state for the past two months)
Very little change today from yesterday's chain of events as mid-upper level ridge axis persists across Central-North portions of the state and along the Straits at the surface. Warm mid-upper level temperatures continue. All in all, very little in steering currents in a somewhat overall stagnant and moderately moist overall air mass.

It's worth mentioning at this point that parts of Brevard, Osceola, and Orange County are the driest in the state this year for the June/July period (as noted in the graphic). This has also been a warmer than normal July for nearly all of the state and many parts of country as well. The trend continues in closing out the month.

TODAY: Much like yesterday, the sea breeze will be a little late in manifesting along the eastern shoreline, but not as late as yesterday. Melbourne set a record 100 degree high temperature Friday breaking the previous 97F reading set for the date 23 years ago. PAFB reached 97 and KSC got to 99. My porch in Cape Canaveral read 98 (very unofficial). Don't think the immediate coast will get quite as hot today assuming the sea breeze develops earlier...if even by only 45 minutes, but inland area temperatures will be comparable to yesterday. Accordingly, a heat advisory was issued for Seminole/Orange Counties. Expect temps along A1A to reach the 93-96 mark and 94-98 mark along US1 and points west.

Probably not enough moisture to support early afternoon activity along the developing sea-breeze, so we'll have to wait until at least the 3-4pm time frame for anything to form, which will likely be along and just west of I-95 anywhere from Oak Hill to Vero. Further south from Ft. Pierce - Ft Lauderdale could see something develop near the Lake closer to the course earlier.

Concern outside of the heat: The region from Oak Hill and points north toward Daytona- Jacksonville- Ocala-Gainesville (essentially the northern 1/3 of the state) could see some stronger storms today with associated wet microbursts...even closer to the coast, although they should remain isolated in nature.
Given the very light mid-level winds per the KSC morning sounding...storm motion will be almost whoever gets under a storm could get a good dousing with gusty winds and frequent lightning in or nearby any storms that can form. Again, the strongest storms will probably be the inland areas north of the Orlando area. Importantly, remember that lightning does strike outside of when it roars, stay indoors.

TOMORROW: Starting to look like Sunday will be similar to today...with the NAM being the odd ball out trying to bring rain to Eastern Brevard earlier in the day. It was implying the same yesterday for at least there's continuity for that model...but not buying into it.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Pattern shift. Continued hot inland but not as hot on the coast with a definitive earlier sea breeze development. Continued low end rain chances area to inland locales later in the afternoon into the evening. Probably dry through at least Thursday east of US1 all areas as a more definitive east to west steering flow develops...hope that changes.

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