"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Blustery, Sky Art-ish Day Ahead

Image: Lola doesn't appear concerned over the weather to come
Yesterday was quite the severe weather day with 11 folks having died as a result due to tornadoes.
The same system that spawned the activity is now moving E-NE into the mid-Atlantic with a trailing cold front draped along the Florida Panhandle this morning. The front will make slow progress toward Central Florida during the course of the next 24 hours.
TODAY: Partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy with a variety of cloud types in the sky all day.  South to SSW winds at 10 gusting to 27 mph at times and a high around 83 degrees. 
No rain for the most part during daylight hours.  I believe at this time any rain during the daylight hours will remain north of a line running from Brooksville to Oakhill (on the east coast).  Note, however, that this is VERY close and it will only take one shower/storm to be a notch south of this line to be in Brevard County.
Any storm that forms today could easily become severe, but I believe they will be so few and far between south of the aforementioned line that I'm leaving rain out of the daylight forecast.
TONIGHT: Rain/storm chances increase somewhat , particularly from midnight to 9am Monday.  Storms could become severe due to strong wind gusts in excess of 55 mph, but those again will be very few and far between, so I'm not really too concerned at this point in time.  Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with a southwest wind of 10-19mph.
NOTE 1: Yesterday's post was pretty much a 'worse case scenario' post and, as it is, none of that worst case 'stuff' is as likely to materialize (i.e., tornadoes) as was discussed yesterday as a potential. Why?  Namely because during the time that the wind fields will be favorable for tornadoes the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be too dry to generate a storm. By the time we get enough deep layer moisture in here the winds will have become mainly unidirectional with height...although they will be quite strong aloft at the jet stream level.  Therefore, the biggest threat from storms late today and tonight I believe will be straight line winds. BUT, that's not to say a tornado isn't entirely out of the question!
NOTE 2: Any significant changes in this forecast will be posted as (or if) time allows
MONDAY: Lingering rain and maybe some thunder early but tapering off by 9am-11am time frame (that is, if it even rains at all!).  I've been watching this system approaching for days and hearing/seeing the forecasts...and this looks a lot like a situation where the system might poop out on us.  However, there is a fly in the ointment.  One model, the GFS, is indicating we could get some downright heavy rains between I'm not tossing the rag in the bucket quite yet.  Winds will be west at 10-20mph with a high around 79 degrees.
Rains should end no matter what materializes (or doesn't materialize) by noon time in the Central and Northern part of the state...but continue later in the day the further south one gets.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing with a  low near 68 degrees along the coast and cooler inland.  Wind west at 5-10mph.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Another weak front will pass on Wednesday with some clouds, but other than that our temperatures will be right around seasonable norms with clear to partly cloudy skies during the day and mostly clear at night.  Winds will become less than 10mph by Wednesday from variable directions.  Specifics to follow as these days approach.

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