"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Best Guess Or Bust? Strong Storms Central and South (East Side)

Muttering and Grumbling Overhead while Cloud To Ground Lightning Strikes over Cocoa and up toward Sanford into Volusia County late Yesterday

TODAY: Persistence would seem to be the best bet on today's forecast, but three in a row? Looks like there might be a shift south a bit today, as most models in the precipitation fields have been showing a dry slot toward I-4, with earlier activity and an apparent early onset across North Florida which might leave a part of the area scoured out for late day. Not to say there is 'no chance' of bonafide storms in the areas that were very active yesterday (e.g. North Volusia), only perhaps a chance that today will not be the case. Models vary vastly though, the best guess appears to be as shown below, though if enough moisture and outflows work hand in hand with the sea breeze on the east coast as the west coast sea breeze comes across (assuming it does), the area toward Sanford could get 'mean' with the lightning once again. 

The morning KSC sounding came in a degree colder than yesterday at 500mb and about the same at 700 mb, with a PWAT (precipitable water value around 1.96" down from 2.02" of yesterday mornings sounding). Concern is that some warming might occur at the lower level later today to offset storms or strength of them; timing will be of the essence today in regard to when what happens where. And the 'what' is a multitude of factors which won't be delineated as it is model dependant anyway, and who can fully trust them when they all differ in varying degrees?

Storms Will more Easily Move Offshore north of Brevard County, PERHAPS strongest activity will be a bit further south and just inland from the coast 
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Pattern shift to more isolated activity as dry-slots work across the state, but where they will be exactly can't be regarded with much certainty until 'the day of'. Time will tell.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front could reach as far as Central or even South Central and wash out. After upon which, it might 'weakly' lift back north toward Friday into the weekend as the large scale upper ridge out west retrogrades and builds north; in doing so ---  the large upper level trough over the East is to also retrograde a bit, enlarge,  and dig deeper south putting Florida in a stronger SW Flow aloft (which might also be a drier flow).


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"Lightning Detectors Blew a Fuse" - Another Weak Tornado East Central


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