"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Last Gasp for East Coast Rain Chances Today For a While

June 11th, 2014 Cape Canaveral Arcus

TODAY: Another atypical June day in store, though will be wet in several locations with thunderstorms or rain showers (or only even stratoform rain); the days of recent events were not what one would think to find in early June which is usually typified by more isolated activity and less overall cloud cover through the day -- just not this year .  Last year was not very typical either if there really is such a thing.

Regardless, though it was rather quiet yesterday for the most part as a frontal boundary had progressed to South Florida, the remnants will return northward at least in terms of some 'deeper moisture' and a subtle wind shift. The wind shift boundary may even be very close to right across 'dead Central" as of this writing before sunrise. 

The question of the day is , 'but where will rains be most concentrated today?'. It appears that Central Florida is already primed for thunderstorms (though not especially 'strong') even prior to sunrise, and was in the process of being 'primed' even late yesterday.  

Though deepest moisture is across South Florida do not believe that will be the focus of the 'better' storms today, but rather more along the surface to 850mb boundary (aloft) under the existence of some 'effective shear' from surface to 500mb which , as is being forecast by at least one model, to be across Central Florida come the hours just after 'peak heating'.  

Steering will be toward the ENE or from west to east across Central at about 10-15knts across mainly South Central and not as much so further North. If all stands true according to 'current thinking' (only) then the better chances for a storm to move 'offshore the east coast' would be from near West Palm Beach north toward Titusville. 

Otherwise, perhaps we will  see 'something like'  what is shown below , with   overall coverage being greatest just inland toward Osceola County, Orange County , Eastern Polk County, to Northern Okeechobee County with a drift toward the east coast. Thus, though some areas will not see a thunderstorm overhead today, many areas might end the late afternoon to early evening hours with a persistent light rain fall, with perhaps an occasional 'rumble over head' due to linger in cloud anvil lightning debris activity.

SUNDAY: Changes in place through at least Wednesday for all storm activity to remain well west of I-95 toward the West Coast. Sunday's focus might be more toward the I-10 corridor to near the Big Bend area and maybe as far south as the Tampa Bay area, but as the week progresses more areas will see rain down the interior peninsula  - almost exclusively west of I-95.  

The better concentration of activity will likely be up and down Rte 27 or between there and the Florida Turnpike for a number of days.

Arcus Cloud Formations outlining the outflow From Classic Sea Breeze convergence storms alone
have been rather rare so far this season along the east coast

THURSDAY-BEYOND: Hints continue of early morning to pre-noon showers (maybe thunder) along the east coast progressing inland during the day as flow becomes much more southerly ; however, this is all linked into what might be going on toward the Bay of Campeche or the far Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is great inconsistency that far out in time, but as it stands now next Saturday could be a bit wet even for the east coast (though this questionable).

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