"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, March 23, 2012

Late Showers/Iso-Storms Interior North - More Over Weekend

Forecast track of upper 500mb trough/low for later today and located near SW Illinois. This image shows the annotated previous location per red arrows from Arizona in the previous post and how, in general, it has proceeded ENE ward the past few days.
This image shows the approximate location for Sunday afternoon..note
the displacement from Illinois SSE-SE ward toward northern GA. Florida
is at this time now in strong winds (blue) aloft

FRIDAY: Happy Spring Renewal Time !  Did you get the cobwebs cleared from winter mentality?  I hope there is a spring in your step and mind. The skies and temperatures over Florida have been fabtabulous with few clouds, and quite!  Much more in that regard for South and South Central today, but interior (later today) and North Florida is a different story.

If you received a blog post yesterday and actually read it, it is time to inform that was not of my doing. The 'poster blog system' erroneously sent out an old post. Apologies if this lead to any confusion. 

Today the upper low will have little effect on the state except toward the Western Panhandle toward Tallahassee as we will see further down in this post. Further east and south into the peninsula it appears ample moisture will be available for a late day east/west coast sea breeze collision time over and near the spinal interior, especially toward JAX-Gainesville region, and possibly working south along the east/west coast seabreeze collision late toward Western if not Central Volusia County.

Further showers could be set off well toward the SSW into Polk County at least, as I see the Storm Prediction Center is playing one model that far south. Although, I am siding more with the GFS and RUC and current without any activity South of the Tampa latitude looks 'questionable' as of this hour..but the region of all encompassing possibilities is included in this graphic.

 and this one
NOTE: this is the latest radar image, see the severe thunderstorm warning along the Florida/Georgia Border as indicated by the yellow box. This area is shifting Eastward slowly along with the upper low. The orange is where thunder could occur today..very spotty if at all south of I-4, but would not sell Lake County Short if not Polk (not shown in orange). I left a 'gap' across Northern (central). This line of reasoning is because believe activity shown on the peninsula will be due to sea breeze collision activity and outflows from that.
Saturday**: Frontal boundary to continue eastward, although poorly defined at the surface yet still; however, the activity that is being generated to our NW in the Panhandle today will re-emerge on Saturday toward Central Florida. Per trends of past three days, and fairly good model agreement, believe some activity (very very isolated) could be "strong" with small  (marble)  hail all East Central. This looks like a case on Saturday for a stronger side-shore type 'sea breeze' to form toward mid-late afternoon remaining pegged along US1 toward I95 at most, with steering aloft toward the E or ENE at 12 mph or so. Instability will be ample but not truly 'amped up' to warrant a higher threat . Temperatures aloft around -12C at 20,0000 ft and near 5C at 10,000 ft. (compared to -5C and 10C respectively  in summer, we can see those temperatures aloft tomorrow are much colder than in the summer when we have some strong storms by at least 5 degrees). But, it will still be warm at ground level. Models agree on Vertical Velocities (upward motion) very consistently model run to model run near and east of Orlando exiting off Central Brevard toward 6pm or so. With this line of reasoning, thunder storms seems a good bet somewhere across East central toward Tampa mid-late afternoon through early evening...and one or two could be on the strong side. Does not seem SPC will issue a "See Text" soley due to the isolated nature of this 'potential' activity, and if at all, mostly along the I-95 toward US1 to off the coast zones.

Sunday: The frontal boundary to be pushing through Central mid morning toward noon. Showers and thunder could again form during this time, especially after 11AM toward South Central. BUT, details get sketchy this far out in time though, especially since the  previous GFS is much faster than the NAM.  As of this morning, the GFS is slowing down though, and this seems feasible. With that , thunder again possible from the Central Dividing Line (affectionately labelled in these posts as the "Magic Dividing Line" running along SR528 ...) into South Central...and perhaps even SE Florida toward Palm Beach County./Dade mid-late afternoon and early evening...before the front clears the state.  

The Front: This front will be more or  less acting like a non-dynamic 'dry line'..but not anywhere near that seen in the Central Plains. Although Monday morning could be a bit cooler than past mornings and damp, sunrise will yield to much drier air as low level moisture mixes out into the dry air just above ground resulting in a warm and dry air (literally and figuratively) day Monday afternoon with a NW wind. Good day to hang the clothes out to dry if doing laundry. No rain expected again for a few days beyond at this point.  

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