"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Lottery-Like Rain Chances Most Likely Inland

"Mirrors of Yesterday"

...and tomorrow...your ship comes in....

TODAY: The 'dry slot' noted in yesterday's blog post never really cleared the area of Central Florida as it moved in (thus, no rains showers at present time) as the GFS showed would occur, but is in the process of 'filling' in from the north and from the south, but mostly it appears on animations from satellite imagery from the east. The drier air is mainly in the lower portions of the mid levels and would therefore delay convection timing across Central/South Central from yesterday when some had already occurred by this time yesterday. The KSC sounding was showing a convective temperature which has already been passed  hours ago, and a CAP strength of 4 which is quite high and difficult to break under the circumstances  -  more moisture, boundary collisions, and greater instability will be essential to surpass that threshold which should be possible by later today; however by that time, the sea breeze on the east coast would be at least as far inland as I-95 (supposedly as climatology goes at least). Steering is close to "Nil" today (as upper level winds across Central at least are being dictated by the near zero point of the ridge axis. South Florida has a much greater East to West steering gradient in place.  

 There could be some greater concentrations in a few select
 areas of 'the more active type' , late today. But isolated cases does not necessarily mean weaker
SUNDAY:  The GFS forecast sounding (Global Forecast System model) for tomorrow morning across Central at least is hilarious, with winds at near 25,000 ft close to  0 (zero) mph. and below, less than 5 kts from a general southerly direction. It is showing two strips of greater atmospheric moisture, one almost directly over where it currently is most dry ( near Central Florida) and another over North Florida. The ridge axis across Florida should begin to slowly creep south in response to the 'Arguably debatable Polar-non-Polar 'Vortex'" which has been more trouble than it's worth to discuss, as that 'area in SE Canada, deepens southward, also bringing a cold front through much of the country which is becoming weather headlines in some areas (of bad news for some around the Great Lakes, but good news for those wanting to save on A/C billings).

In any case, tomorrow looks to be the transition day as is part of Monday leading into Tuesday - Thursday which will be a new story for all of Florida in regard to storm motions. These days will be problematic though, as it is now being shown that all things are not created equal when it comes to moisture distribution in a rather weak southwest flow aloft. For those in need of rain on the beaches, this might be the better time period chance to receive some.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Shift change, updates forth-coming on a daily basis as steering is more deliberately from the SW, but weak enough not to off set east coast sea breezes except perhaps north of I-4.

BEYOND: Too soon to be definitive, but it does look at least like a return to NIL flow or even a pressing toward the west side will be in the offing at some point going into next weekend.

The Moon Sets- Sun Rise

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