"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Strong to 'Isolated Pulse Severe' Storms Possible Today Parts of the Interior

July 8, 2014  Storm Moves in on The Beaches
TODAY: Ample moisture , good surface heating and mixing ratios, with precipitable water values (PW) on the KSC sounding at 1.74" and 500mb temperature a cool -8 t0 -8.5C; Tampa is at 1.81 PW with similar 500mb temperature and both reading around 8C at 700mb ,  (as too is the same case with Miami) reveals fairly uniform conditions more or less across the region (peninsular North Central to South Florida). 

The surface ridge axis is approximately across a line running east -west across Lake Okeechobee whereas the mid level ridge axis is close to Central Florida to South Central Florida. Winds at all levels are generally 10kts or less...but from the west to southwest surface up through the mid-levels mainly north of a line running from Vero Beach to Sarasota.

What this all amounts to is both sea breezes to become active and progress inland in due time (but at what rate is always a mystery) with the area around the Big Bend and SE Florida to potentially 'go off' earlier along their respective sea breeze fronts which appears to be at hand already as of 11:55AM...

As this activity sets off outflows and propagates even newer activity going toward mid afternoon the sea breezes themselves will begin to work inland..further inland from Southeast Florida north and westward...and further inland toward the east and south from NW Florida.

All this 'should' come together with accompanying moisture convergence and Deep Moisture Convergence in the presence of colder air aloft and moderate instability in the lower levels to result in perhaps some water overloading aloft leading to strong downburst winds near heavier storms. 

Given the temperature profiles aloft (which are rather cool toward the colder side as far as the summer norm is concerned) a brief spurt of hail might also occur in some isolated storms which if the cards were to fall just right in isolated areas could result in Pulse Severe.

Activity might be able to find its way all the way to the beach proper mainly from near Oak Hill (southern Volusia) and north and toward US1 or I-95 further south. Local area affects along the eastern and north eastern banks of Lake Okeechobee will not be referred to at this point as those are too localized to be worth surmising due to the large scale overall scenario at hand today, though the 'potential' is there for that  area to have some anomalies to contend with as well.  

Some light rain even might be able to be realized at the beaches proper as far south as Central Brevard eventually accompanied by some rumbles aloft? We'll just have to see.

SUNDAY: Similar scenario in the all - in - all other than that temperatures aloft might not be quite as cold; on the other hand, the immediate beaches might have a better chance at rainfall on Sunday north of Vero Beach as the surface ridge takes its most sturdy plunge southward both at the surface and up through the mid levels resulting in better (though quite weak) west to east steering.

MONDAY: Pattern begins to change. Appears air aloft might warm as winds at most levels come to be more from the south to south -southeast direction. with moisture still around there might' be showers near the beaches early on but that activity would shift to the interior in rapid fashion working into mid afternoon.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Moisture from the old tropical system well out in the Atlantic is forecast to approach Florida . If so, it would be rather transparent to residents; just another day at the office more or less with maybe some showers nearer the coast earlier in the day ,  with maybe Thursday being 'that day of higher chances toward the west coast late in the day, and east coast early on'    ..then Friday might be a transition day...

BEYOND (yet still?): Upper level trough might dig south along the the Appalachians providing for better storm coverage toward the east side of the state again next weekend. Yet as we approach ...

(Magic Eight-ball Time: MONDAY and BEYOND of THE NEXT WEEK: All eyes might be on the tropics with a system that has been being forecast to move across or near Cuba and perhaps poise Florida as a target within 'eye' site. Too much uncertainty at this point. Historically speaking, there has been very little tropical activity to ever hit Florida prior to the last week of July that was above tropical storm status across all recorded (officially) history.

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