"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

"Wet Season Suddenly on Tap" Thursday into Much of Next Week?

Testing a Wide Angle Lens   June 9, 2016  on a Storm to the West of Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Getting  an 'early start' on some showers going up along the East Coast Sea Breeze as of around 10:20AM along the west banks of the intercoastals. This activity will only slowly progress westward if at all. Once the Sea Breeze kicks in most of it might dissipate, only to re-emerge later in the day further inland.

Meanwhile, the west coast sea breeze will generate and work away from that coast.
The Short-Range and mid-range guidance suppose they will confront each other very close to the SR27 Corridor or very close to just west of the North/South Spine of the state between 5-6pm.

Meanwhile , steering winds aloft, though a bit 'east to west' early on over the Southern 1/3rd of the state, will progressively become more 'West to East' after dark and into all day Thursday and beyond that point well into next week. They are all but already nearly 'west to east' near to north of I4 even now.

But for today, the post considers the sea breeze collision well into the interior with a slight favoring toward the east coast along to north of I-4 as a result of the winds noted in the preceding paragraph. 

In fact, some activity might be able to work off the east coast across Volusia/Flagler Counties near or after dark up through 9-10PM, if as nothing more than
light-moderate rain showers. Will far North Brevard too get into the picture for rains later tonight too?  Time will tell, but the change is on .

THURSDAY: Pattern swing erupting faster than foreseen from but only two days ago. 

What was thought to be an overall 'west to east' pattern in storm motion on Sunday is beginning to now show signs of arriving as soon as Friday. 

Though steering will not be all that strong, it is nonetheless to be present. Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, so looking at this point for run-of the mill type activity heading into the weekend.

The cause of the change of pattern is a mid-level trough forming over North Texas which will be moving east across the lower latitudes the next several days. As it progresses east the high pressure ridge centered over Florida - off the east coast will slacken and drop south, to eventually being out of the picture altogether; this then would be placing the state in Cyclonic Flow near that mid-level low pressure region-and around to near the base of the approaching associated trough  .

Increasingly the winds aloft and eventually at the surface are forecast to become  southwest to west-southwest with time. So much so,that the east coast sea breeze might be prevented from forming completely come early next week. 

Additionally with the approach of this trough, moisture pooled ahead of it,and some drawn northward will overspread the state. 

Forecast precipitable water values are varying from 1.7" to 2.2' inches on nearly a daily basis from Thursday up through Thursday of next week, at least.

FRIDAY -THIS WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS Guidance implies the state will be in an increasing cyclonic flow around low pressure centered over Georgia and into the Carolinas with increasing moisture in the mid-upper levels. 

That means 'westerly' type winds with an increasing chance that we will not be seeing an east coast sea breeze some of the days coming up. 

With increased moisture as well, this all could mean 'early onset' days. 

That means, showers/thunderstorms could come into the picture as early as before noon, even mid or early morning along the West Coast and work toward the East Coast by early afternoon. 

All this is speculation at this point,but it sure looks like that might be the case from here.

With increased moisture, we will see increased cloud cover, so that despite the absence (potentially) of an east coast sea breeze, cloud cover and/or earlier onset of showers and storms would preclude us from experiencing very warm temperatures. 

Actually, from today on out temperatures appear will run the 'normal gamut' by and large well into next week; (that is to say, other than the chance of near record breaking 'record warm minimums overnight' especially along some of the east coast reporting stations). 

Once we get more into a 'westerly flow from the bottom up' going into the weekend that risk will go away though as well.

SUMMARY: Increasing rain chances most locations begins especially around Sunday. There appears that somewhere between SUNDAY-TUESDAY we could see STRONG STORMS as well, but that is too far out in time to dig into details for why that would be using the variables required to make that assertion that are too 'fine' to know of with any certainty at this point. Rainfall TOTALS across all days from Today through the end of next week
could amount to SEVERAL INCHES in a few locations,especially over preferred Polk, Osceola, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Lake Counties.

All in all, with the prospects of higher PWAT (precipitable water) atmospherically for such a prolonged length of time right into mid-June, we might be able to consider that going from today into the weekend we are welcoming the Wet Season afterall (?)

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