"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Strong SW Flow To Continue Through Wednesday

SYNOPSIS: Not much appreciable change from yesterday as moderate to strong SW flow in the mid-upper levels is in full swing. A surface front is roughly stringed across South Central Georgia while a surface ridge axis remains well to the south over the Florida Straits. Mid-Upper level winds are from the WSW-SW and jet stream level winds are starting to join the bandwagon between the squeezing influence of these two features. Deep moisture streams across the North Central through South Central Peninsula and slightly drier (but not dry) air resides over extreme South and North portions. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of partly cloudy skies prevail under the strong SW-WSW wind corridor.  Elsewhere, a weak surface mid-level low has formed in the West Central Gulf. No significant strengthening of this feature is anticipated.
TODAY: SW flow aloft prevails under partly to mostly cloudy skies during the late morning to early afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy-cloudy by late afternoon.  A rapidly weakening band of moderate rain showers is entering Orange County down through Polk and moving steadily ENE-NE ward. Expect this area to continue spreading across the state as we work toward noon...thus many areas in the north halves of Polk/Osceola/Brevard up toward Seminole, Lake, and Volusia will be encompassed by light to moderate rains eventually. The heaviest rain will be encountered along the leading edge of this rain area.  Mid-upper level temperatures have cooled a degree or two as anticipated yesterday...seemingly just enough to keep the cloud cover intact yet not enough for strong updraft generation. Thus, not expecting any sig storms today yet...but some imbedded thunder is not out of the question after 1pm. With the strong mid level winds now in place, the heaviest rain showers could be accompanied by wind gusts in the 40mph range. Will be watching the immediate coastal areas from just north of West Palm on up I95-A1A toward Ormond Beach though since the rain shield arrival (assuming it makes it this far) will be preceded by a longer period of data 'heating'...or what little there is under these mostly cloudy skies...which could provide some fuel for regeneration of showers/storms along the leading edge. The heaviest storms will likely be mid-late afternoon today further north toward Volusia and Flagler Counties and inland near the big cities of Ocala and Gainesville.
TOMORROW: Not much change as the current synoptic set up remains status quo over the SE States. Most certainly another post will be needed to refine the details though since the amount of lingering cloud cover will play a crucial role in rain shower development/intensity. Also to  watch will be any upper level vorticity linger over or near the state.
THURSDAY: SW flow not so quick to move out as earlier suppositioned! The main reason this is important is the strength of the flow will be crucial for determination of when, where, and how strong the sea breeze will be or form. Currently it appears that a sea breeze could form but would remain very close to the coast (along or east of I-95). If so, we could see some stronger storms along the coast from near West Palm to Ormond.
FRIDAY: Continued uncertainties..but most assuredly the strength of the SW flow will have waned considerably by this time with sea/lake breezes circulations at play for yet another challenge to mix into the forecast equation.
TROPICS: Hurricane Danielle looks to be weakening slightly at this time but of no concern no matter how you slice it.  We may soon be looking at an Earl in a day or two...and even perhaps Fiona after that. Meanwhile, it wouldn't hurt to watch the West Central Gulf and who knows...maybe even the Central Gulf by this time tomorrow. There are no indications right now that anything significant will develop in this area at time...but as the mid-level trough axis gets get off and lingers over this region things could at least get a little interesting to glimpse at during the next 48 hours.

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