"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Isolated Strong Storms Are "Possible" Today after 5PM - 8PM

TODAY: Latest morning guidance shows moderate to strong instability continues to reside off the Florida East coast to be advected inland with the east coast sea breeze. Steering above the level of the sea breeze is from the SW-SSW near 10-12 knots toward the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet. If the depth of the sea breeze extends up toward 2000 ft or so, winds at that level (so far) are also from the SW-SSW and therefore hard to be too sure of just exactly how far inland it will work this afternoon,  but suspect it might not make it as far as the Orlando METRO area or if so, perhaps MCO area at best. 

Otherwise, temperatures aloft are cold for this time of year per the KSC morning sounding which is a sign of a strong storm signal given other factors are present as well, but guidance indicates some warming will occur as the day progresses. Suspect some showers could go up along the sea breeze as there is more moisture today than yesterday, and one did manage to go up down in Indian River County west of Vero Beach proper along the sea breeze with less moisture present.

There are some other meteorological parameters that are derived from equations that would support strong activity today, but very isolated, such as some pockets of dry air. 

The additive bonus that goes without saying,  but that which models cannot account for at least not very accurately,  is the sea breeze convergence factor coupled with any outflows from even only rainshowers that set up boundaries prior to late day time frame when heating has been maximized and various lake and sea breezes begin to interact in random fashion. 

Those combined with the aforementioned  enhanced low level helicities east of I-95 toward Central Florida and toward the interiors up to the storm base level could give rise to some decent true to life thunderstorm activity given the current situation, unless things change radically between now and then. The down play toward North Central is a thin veil of high level cirrus clouds that are a result of thunderstorms over the panhandle region this morning.

BEYOND: More storms are possible through Friday, but each day will be on the  "Play it as it Comes" . Other days before then could see some strong storms as well; e.g. The NAM model from overnight showed more so tomorrow.  The front and storm system related to the severe weather in parts of the Deep South is expected to make headway through Florida late Saturday.

Below is only a make up of an area the blogger is watching for today for potentially damaging storms most concentrated wise; official outlets have the details though.


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