"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Conditional Chance of Isolated Storm (s) Today, Mainly South Central

Satellite Imagery shows some clearing as of this 1pm hour, but more high clouds could threaten the formation of storms today. Any activity will be fairly isolated, with the best chances from Osceola toward Central Brevard South to the north side of Lake Okeechobee
TODAY: Without going into in-depth description per a wide variety of variables and descriptors which for the the most part will be meaningless to most, latest hourly Mesoscale Analysis (per the RAP model), indicates that under no uncertain terms that severe or strong storms are possible today given the degree of shear and more helicity today than yesterday. The issue is not that conditions are not favorable for strong or severe storms, the issue is getting them initiated. With high clouds cutting off the high temperature today, can we reach convective temperatures? The KSC sounding early today showed   the break point temperature to be 84F degrees, but high clouds and some middle clouds could prevent that from being reached long enough for initiation to commence. Granted, that was deemed to be such around 7AM this morning and conditions do change. The frontal boundary seems to reside now across Central to Southern Volusia county on the east coast and stretches off to the SW with little motion during daytime heating. The best wind vectors are in the red zone (mainly the north 1/2 of it), but they quickly fade away to negligible near the Big Lake, not to say that those depictions are entirely accurate though, afterall , it's a model and not necessarily absolutely true. We take what we can get and make the best of it.  Thus, there is a chance of storms today conditionally .

TONIGHT: The front will cross Central toward the Big Lake after dark, presumably with little fanfare once the sun is set and gone for an hour or so, with N-NE winds all areas by this time tomorrow. Chances of low topped stratocumulus clouds accompanied by sprinkles moving ashore mainly south of I-4, especially on Friday. Winds becoming very light as well.

WEEKEND: Very light winds with seasonable air temperatures. There is a suggestion by the GFS that we will begin to see plentiful cirro-stratus and cirrus clouds, especially north of Lake Okeechobee into Georgia and Alabama, so day time temperatures might be held down into the lower 70Fs.

THE NEXT FRONT has been popping up to pass through on Tuesday. So far, as of this morning, surface winds have been tempered back, as opposed to what was written yesterday. This will be a wait and see issue at this conjuncture though to see model consistency. Otherwise, a much cooler time frame could be in store beyond Tuesday of next week. With another front or two before Christmas mainly passing through with little fanfare, but keeping temperatures down, potentially into the 40Fs range for lows and upper 60Fs for highs.

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