"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, April 16, 2015

'Potentially' Active Day (by April Standards) at Hand

" Gimme   Higher  Ground "
TODAY   Fairly active rain day yesterday over and north of I-4 mainly and toward the east coast as the anticipated disturbance 'noted' in the blog post crossed that region. It appears it might have provided the impetus for   weak surface low development well south southeast of the Georgia coast with a trailing 'frontal like' boundary across Central Florida. One model indicates that boundary to lay across South Central at the surface but just above ground to be across Central Direct. Not sure it will as active north of I-4 today as it was yesterday toward the East Coast such as over Flagler and Northern Volusia, but further south toward Brevard (interior mainly) and south around the Lake Okeechobee region such as near Ft pierce within 30 miles and across the state (as shown below) might be more active. 

If activity gets an earlier start as some guidance shows, stronger storms might occur over South Central later in the day as a result of outflow boundaries from further north as a result of rain cooled air, but interior Central regions might also see a stronger storm or two briefly. The bigger 'hazard' today looks like it could be localized ponding or small scale flooding in rural areas as Volusia, Seminole, parts of Volusia, and Polk Counties (at least) have seen some good rainfall over the past few days (outside of the lightning hazard ritual).

Expect that we might see a concentrated area of  rain area  today as well (esp. after dark) in the storm decay phase, but exactly where and if so is hard to say, but Central o South Central looks the most likely at this point.

FRIDAY  looks to be another active day, but of a totally different character as the surface boundaries will have dissipated with  a   SW steering flow taking hold for activity to migrate toward the east coast  .  This will mostly be noticed therefore by beach side east coasters beach   where rain chances might be greater there on this day in some locations

(As noted several posts ago, upper level Southern Branch Jet Stream winds will be coming into play, slightly ever so much perhaps later today even which if so could keep activity going for a while tonight. Otherwise, they might be more in play tomorrow for INITIATION time as opposed to dissipation time (today - Thursday). )

BEYOND  Won't elaborate at this point , but rain chances remain through the weekend though Saturday looks to be a much slower day as short-wave ridging ripples past. Continues to appear now that Monday or Tuesday might be the last hooray, but only for perhaps 3 days when rain chances again to emerge on the threshold,  knocking. Sunday also looks like an active day.

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