"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Minor Changes Yield Minimal Results

(IMAGE: without availablitiy of the KSC sounding, we resort to the less-than-impressive Tampa one)
Sometimes a minor atmospheric change can significantly alter the weather for a specific locale, but that is not the case for today (at least not at this local level).

THE SYNOPSIS: On the synoptic scale everything is materializing as anticipated yesterday. The low pressure system that was just off the North Carolina coast is moving NNE pretty much parallel to and just offshore the coast. This system will continue heading toward coastal New England as it becomes essentially entrained (absorbed) into the midlevel trough and associated surface cold frontal boundary by later today during the course of its journey. The surface front is now almost right on the coast for the NE states but drags back toward the SSW-SW-and eventually west as one heads south through Virginia, the Carolinas, and into north central Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. Meanwhile, high pressure has the expanse for almost the entire Southern U.S. from the Florida Panhandle, along the Gulf Coast, across Central Texas, and west to Arizona. The trough along the U.S. East Coast has temporarily put a minor break in the ridge strength over Florida and pushed it well south toward the Florida Keys. As such the low and mid-level flow is from the SW.

LOCAL ANALYSIS: I was not able to obtain upper sounding data from KSC (XMR) this morning as it hasn't updated since yesterday morning on the internet (sob). But based solely on the latest satellite imagery / model initialization/ surface observations / and local visual clues observed upon looking outside it is apparent that the suppression and drying affects from yesterday's ridge placement aloft has proportionately abated as the axis was dislocated south of the immediate area over night. The NWS MLB apparently still has the goods on the sounding data though, and per what could be picked out of their discussion combined with water vapor imagery it's safe to say that PWAT values have increased since yesterday in the mid-upper levels although the temperature there is still on the "too warm" side for robust convective initiation and sustenance. Additionally the lazy, hazy look to the sky has decreased and thus visibility has gone up.

TODAY: With placement of the ridge axis further south we have a morning land breeze. Models are all showing a SW-WSW flow to persist through the next 48 hours at least, but I believe that the pressure gradient at the surface will not be strong enough to maintain that wind component once the land/sea thermal gradient and resultant pressure patterns gets established. But it will take a while for the synoptic pattern to be overcome. In other words, a late start to the sea-breeze which yesterday commenced during the 12:00 noon hour. Thinking now is the sea breeze will not commence until 1:30-3pm. As a result, even the A1A corridor will feel the heat pinch with high temperatures solidly in the lower third of the 90s if not a degree or two warmer than that.

Rain?! There is actually two periods at which we could get the smallest of chances of rain today. Period one is contingent upon if the sea breeze starts up as late as was just hypothesized. If it does indeed hold off until later, there will be a chance some showers could go up right along the immediate east coast as far south as Martin County (near Palm Beach) within the first hour of sea breeze initiation due to coastal low level wind convergence, the longer time for instability to amass, and the slight increase in atmospheric moisture which has occurred over the past 24 hours. The folks further south by Martin County will have the added benefit of a Lake Okeechobee/Atlantic breeze collision but moisture is lacking more down that way so this is questionable for them. The second period will be when the west coast sea breeze has worked across the state and confronts the east coast sea breeze which, assuming it does indeed initiate, will be east of Orlando close to I-95 during the early evening hours (post 6:30 pm - 9pm). This activity would drift slowly back toward the coast as well anywhere from southern Volusia through Indian River Counties.

TOMORROW: Looks like a repeat of today with only localized parameters and subsequent atmospheric adjustments in the level of available moisture during the course of the next 24 hours being the factors needed to ascertain just exactly how, when, or if we will have rain chances and if so, how high they will be. For now, if we rely solely on last night's model runs..the chances for rain tomorrow look bleak at best.

EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK: The ridge axis will remain to the south through Tuesday then progress north to Central Florida by midweek. Although steering currents appear as though they will be less favorable for the rain chances along the barrier islands on Wednesday they could very well increase for folks west of US1 since it will bring a return to higher PWATs upon its return.

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