"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Winds of Change Beginning - Up to 3 Rain Chances Possible Toward Mid-Month

If only the weather was a simple as a posted sign. The sky does have it's signs when one learns how to read between the transparent lines. 

Infrared Satellite Image and Animation Prior to Daybreak indicates that  mid-upper level clouds shown by the gray to white color scheme are moving from the west toward the east. Model guidance clearly shows this influx of moisture aloft as dictated by its depiction of moisture aloft. This moisture will be in place in varying degrees, mainly across the north half of the state and a portion southward toward North Lake Okeechobee all day, thinning out a bit toward mid-late afternoon.
This image shows the moisture aloft from a different perspective. Data acquisition interpolation plotted out in color codes, with blue being the most moisture. The wind barbs point from west toward east. Animation of the satellite image shows this is in fact the direction of cloud motion  

Winds of change, meaning, model consistency in a broad sense indicates the days of cold are coming to an end, and chances of rain are entering the mid-long range time frame in the second and third weeks of January. It has, afterall, been quite a while since any rain has truly been in the forecast. There is a chance that not only rain chances, but strong to winter time severe storms will be possible heading toward mid-January into Week 3. Long range temperatures are not expected, so far (fingers crossed) plummet to those experienced recently. This was the prognosis in recollection of an earlier post for the future, and so far  this is holding true to form. Can't even really be sure but the signs are consistent. Cannot  hurt to gaze forward in possibility. Meanwhile...

TODAY: It is Saturday, January 7th. As can be seen in the images above, a mid-level ripple in the atmosphere (short wave trough) is passing over head accompanied by moisture. This can be seen on the satellite image and in looking outside, I see an orange/pink sunrise beginning to aspire. Winds are dead calm and temperatures statewide are running in the mid 40s toward lower 50Fs. Warmest temperatures are under the thickest impinging cloud cover toward the Tampa area where the clouds act as a blanket aloft, not allow warmer air from the previous day to escape into the atmosphere. Like yesterday, there is wide spread fog , some very dense, in many areas. Areas outside of the fogged in locations remain unaware that neighboring areas are experiencing this fog. The fog will lift out by mid-morning at the very latest with highs in the upper 60Fs, although some mid 60Fs where clouds are most prevalent are possible. Actual high readings could be in the lower 70Fs, but I would not expect that to be the prevalent modus other words, only relatively briefly. Most  likely toward Lake Okechobee and South where clouds will not be as prevalent is where consistent 70Fs will occur, unless clouds are not as prevalent as current line of thinking is depicted.

TONIGHT Thru TUESDAY: Gradually warmer overnights by a few degrees as well as days. A few clouds, light wind, and some near to right on "True, Blue, and 72F" fact, possibly even warmer, especially on Tuesday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs (south).  A cold front will be on the approach; the jury is out concerning its impacts as far as how much, where, when, and how strong rain will fall including a strong storm potential. It is my inclination this go around to preclude a severe threat, although it is tempting to consider it given the forecast wind fields on the GFS model. Thus, watching the Wednesday time frame for at least rain and maybe more than simply that. If conditions warrant a more in-depth detailed low down,  we will delve into this day with more in-depth analysis and description in a future post or posts. 

WEDNESDAY:  As noted above, a possible pre-frontal trough and associated cold front will bring in the biggest chance of rain we have had for quite some time. Not necessarily at this conjuncture that it is 100 percent certain...but we are leaning that way. The good news though, is that it does not look to get much colder after the boundary passage than it is this morning.

BEYOND: Though it will not be getting much colder, there is a reason. This could very well be only the first of up to 2 more fronts within a one week to 10 day time frame, each carrying a rain potential..and each with a chance of greater impact and accompanying strong to sever storm investigation as an over all pattern in the wind fields at all atmospheric levels takes place. 

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