"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, June 8, 2012

Mostly Cloudy, Muggy, with Showers and Some Thunders

Captions say it all

TODAY: As of noon time the old frontal boundary that was near I-10 is sinking south per all model guidance prior to yesterday's post, and so it is to be as models show it now near I-4 but sinking into Dead Central or near there by mid-afternoon where it then undulates in that general area into Saturday. The surface boundary is expected to sink to the Central Dividing Zone from near the Port of Canaveral toward North Tampa Bay area by 6pm as it begins to 'wash out' or be absorbed a bit by high pressure building east and south to the north of the state later on Saturday. The boundary should remain across Dead Central or northern South Central into tomorrow before losing all identity, or what little will be left of it. The front is barely surface based as it is, and likely will only be more evident with time between 2000 -4000 ft above ground.  

Otherwise, all things aside, mostly cloudy but with a few good clouds breaks here and there, ex-specially toward the Lake. As it is, not hesitancy there.. showers and thunder have already begun, taking advantage of the opportunity to savor the sun's energy supply. During the remainder of the day, the most likely areas to get thunder will be just upstream of where the larger cloud breaks occur, primarily any of those in the 2:30-6pm time frame.  Best convergence along the boundary coupled with only slightly stronger wind aloft could result in a stronger storm toward Eastern South Central and SE Florida (earlier than the more northern area of interest). The area from Port St John/Canaveral to MLB 'could' be an area to watch, but further south toward Vero may also be more favorable. Also, the east side toward West Palm toward Dade County might see a good one or two.

To Note: At this hour, Central south of the front is about the LEAST favorable area for a storm as it is, but expect this potentially (or possibly) to be the most favored area later today, holding off to build up steam until later unless the current atmospheric conditions portrayed in the finer details do not change. Thus, South Central is a bit sketchy but will will ride with continuity of past model runs and ignore the short term model for the area near the front.  The inhibiting factor there could end up being a new influx of high clouds and stabilization from showers further to the west sending out debris clouds. Otherwise, today is just like all the others except toward South Florida that has not seen as much activity lately as has the region further north.

SATURDAY: Another version of the same old story. Could be that Central will get in on the rains early in the day, and that will be the end of the story there., at least for a portion of the day. Transitory day for sure as what remains of the boundary washes out near Central along Brevard County, but the western edge of the boundary begins to get wrapped northward up the west coast as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds becoming east to ESE in the afternoon, but weak steering could send a strong thunder 'eventually' back eastward South of Titusville to Miami later into the day or early evening. Otherwise, most storms tomorrow will occur west of I-95 with slow storm motions and still quite a few clouds elsewhere.

SUNDAY/TUESDAY: More changes. The main issue to watch will be for continued high clouds, as implications from two of the models show continued high moisture aloft (which does not always mean clouds given the depth of moisture portrayed in guidance). Most storms it appears though will be west of I-95 at least if not more so...but there is still discrepancies regarding just how much further west, especially up toward Daytona to JAX. Could be only the west 1/2 of the state will get wet for a few days into mid-week.

By Thursday and Friday so far much of the state could see the more afternoon variety thunderstorms heading toward the east coast by mid afternoon by then, as a mid - upper level trough sinks south into the central Gulf resulting in re-newed   east bound storm steering currents aloft.

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