"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, August 15, 2011

Strong Storms Possible East Central Late Today

There is a chance of a repeat performance of yesterday with a few variations. Details are in the blog post below
TODAY: Quick post today short, much of today is panning out to look like yesterday..with a small variation or two.

As expected, the surface front is beginning to, if not already, stall. It is shown with the yellow line across N. Florida. Expect a thermal heat trough to form this afternoon down the spine of the state..but more toward the east. This, in turn, will tend to back the surface winds from westerly to SSW if not S-SSE mainly north of West Palm Beach.  Therefore, it is possible that storms could be strongest as they approach and clear I95 toward the coast north of the Lake Okeechobee Shadow...with the winds backing...but not sure of just how is a bit difficult to determine exactly which area will be in the shadow..but it appears that Martin County toward Ft. Pierce or just south of that area might be protected from heavy storms.

Otherwise, much of the state is coming out almost uniform in terms of instability...however, ALL of East Central (mainly South Central) is very capped off right now..this is expected to break after 1pm...and will mean a bit of a delay in storms to affect the area...until late afternoon.

With peak heating increasing dew point depressions..most activity crossing the state will be rain showers with some thunder other than over South Florida South of the Lake until after 4pm. Believe there too storms will strengthen to thunderstorms. The coolest mid-level temperatures are forecast to exist north of Lake Okeechobee as well. Therefore, with increasing helicity up the rivers mainly in Brevard/Indian River County...high CAPE...and the left exit region of the 200mb jet in the area...storms could be quite vigorous toward Mims/Titusville south to Port Canaveral and south yet again toward Vero Beach.  The best divergence seems to be setting up south of the Port there to..some storms could be strong for another reason.

The strongest storms will be after 5pm (except South Florida), but inevitably...just exactly where that will be will depend on where outflow boundaries from showers to the west escalate the forward motion of the west coast sea breeze..and then interact with each they approach the coast...the river upwinds will have an additional impact as the storms approach US1 mainly from Oak Hill and South Along A1A. Waterspouts could occur, mainly as storms cross A1A and exit into the ocean after 6pm.

Somewhere today, and I'm thinking Central Brevard toward Vero Beach...storms/rain will pile up outflows from storms press back to the coast and meet the developing SW flow which will resume after 7pm. This is a bit questionable though..due to the more prevalent stronger steering which is assumed to occur today from that of yesterday. I'm not sold on it though at all at this point...and will ride with rains to last near the coast somewhere from the Cape and South to Ft Pierce tonight.

TROPICS: Only thing to consider other than  Tropical Storm Franklin which is by passing Bermuda is the last week of August. The Dry Air Pocket near the Great Antilles is filling up...and there is a train of what looks like developing wave all SOUTH of 10 degrees N. Latitude.  See the text...

AFTER TODAY: A variation of today is again in store, with more storms looking probable, strong along the east coast. Beyond Tuesday...more of the state will be favored for storms..with steering remaining toward the East Side but at a slower pace. By later in the week, most storms might be restricted to west of US1 or I-95 as the east coast sea breeze will develop by noon time or shortly thereafter and make greater inland penetration.

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